Two of the top six favorites in Week 4 lost outright, but last week’s NFL survivor pool advice got through our two safest picks of the week (Ravens and Vikings) and correctly identified a risky play (Bills) that lost as a sizeable favorite. Hopefully, at this point, you’re still alive in your survivor pools, just like the minority of Circa Sports survivor pool contestants.
#CircaSurvivor hasn’t had any major carnage ?"? in NFL 🏈 Week 4, but still had 298 eliminations ?'? on Sunday led by 178 on the Bills, 91 on the Cardinals and 13 on the Lions tonight to drop below 6K at 5,987 heading into MNF @CircaSports @DerekJStevens @JeffreyBenson12 @VSiNLive
- Dave Tuley (@ViewFromVegas) October 5, 2026
Read on for our best NFL survivor pool advice for Week 5.
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NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 5: Picks & Predictions (2026)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Here is a list of odds for the top 10 favorites to win their Week 5 matchups.
Week 5 NFL Moneyline Odds
| TEAM | ODDS |
| Dallas Cowboys | -535 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | -355 |
| Houston Texans | -325 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -218 |
| Detroit Lions | -218 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -205 |
| New England Patriots | -192 |
| Denver Broncos | -185 |
| Washington Commanders | -170 |
| Chicago Bears | -148 |
Safest Picks
Dallas Cowboys, Cincinnati Bengals
The Buccaneers are off to their first 0-4 start since 2013, a year when they finished 4-12. It may give some pause to back Dallas in this game given that Tampa Bay has played 10 straight one-score games, the longest streak in team history. But the Buccaneers are just 2-8 in those games, and Dallas' defensive issues shouldn't be exposed by a Jalon Daniels-led offense that managed just 275 total yards and 4.5 yards per pass last week.
Dallas allowed eight pass plays of 20+ yards to Houston, so I'm making sure I use the Cowboys in survivor pools against an opponent I do not fear will throw all over them.
Many will be down on Cincinnati this week after Joe Burrow was pressured on 34.5% of dropbacks against the Jaguars, his highest pressure rate since Week 11 of 2024. But Miami's defense entered Week 4 as the only team in the league yet to record a sack, and its offense didn't cross midfield in the loss to Minnesota until its first possession of the third quarter.
Burrow had a chance to lead the Bengals on a touchdown-leading drive in the fourth quarter against a stout Jaguars defense last week, but was picked off in the red zone.
This becomes a much more confident play if Ja'Marr Chase clears concussion protocol and is active this week. Even if he is ruled out, I don't worry about Burrow's turnover issues against a Dolphins defense that entered Monday as one of 10 with three or fewer takeaways.
Risky Popular Plays
Houston Texans, Detroit Lions, Baltimore Ravens
The Texans took a gut-punching loss to the Cowboys, never trailing through three quarters, to fall 0-4 for the fourth time in franchise history.
Tennessee is a great opponent to get right, as it is 0-4 in back-to-back seasons for the second time in team history and has lost six straight games dating back to last season. But only one team has made the playoffs after a 0-4 start (the 1992 Chargers), and I worry about locker-room morale. In addition, Houston's vaunted defense again gave up 30+ points, including Dak Prescott's 16.6 yards per attempt against the blitz (his most in a game since Week 4 of 2024).
I’m also avoiding Detroit in survivor pools this week, as it plays its second consecutive road game after a loss at Carolina. Oddsmakers clearly think highly enough of an Arizona team that was a road favorite against the Giants last week (and lost because of a late red-zone interception). Meanwhile, Detroit’s defense is dead last in points allowed and has allowed season highs to every one of its opponents.
Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson missed the whole second half of the team’s win over Tennessee last week while nursing an ankle injury. His questionable status is likely reflected in the team’s -3.5-point spread against the Falcons this week, but I’d want to make sure he is 100% before risking my survivor pool life on Baltimore, given this uncertainty, even if Jackson is 26-4 in 30 career starts against NFC teams.
Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool
New England Patriots
The Patriots still play four games against the Dolphins and Jets, with two of those games happening in the next three weeks. But if one was worried about the Cowboys’ defense on a short week or had the Bengals on upset alert, you could do worse than using New England against the 3-1 Raiders in survivor pools this week.
New England's offense should be riding high after scoring four offensive touchdowns against the Bills, two more than they entered the game with for the season. And while New England is just 2-2, Las Vegas has shown its inability to beat good teams, losing 15 straight games against teams that entered with a winning record.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.