For my best longshot bets of this week, I'm focusing on two favorites and a running back who has struggled on a bad offense. Below, I explain why the Lions are going to score at least 40 for the second time this year, why the Seahawks are going to destroy the Cardinals again, and why Jonathan Taylor is in for a big performance.
Here are the best longshot bets of Week 9 of the NFL season.
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NFL Week 9 Picks: Sleepers & Longshot Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Detroit Lions vs. Miami Dolphins
Though the Lions are still averaging the third-most points per game (29.0), they have scored 20 and 19 in their last two games. However, those performances came against the Packers and Vikings, two division rivals that rank 10th and first in scoring defense, respectively.
This week, the Lions get the league's 25th-ranked scoring defense, as the Dolphins are allowing 25.9 points per game. The Dolphins have allowed six of their seven opponents to score at least 24 points against them this season. While only one team has topped 30 points, the Lions have scored at least 31 points four times this season. And their season-high is 45.
While there may be some concern about the Lions starting slow after back-to-back dramatic wins, I ultimately am not overly concerned due to how competitive the NFC North is this season. The Lions can't afford to take their easiest remaining game lightly, and therefore I expect the fourth-ranked passing attack and the seventh-ranked rushing attack to light up the worst defense they've faced since before their bye.
Pick: Detroit Lions Over 39.5 Points (+550)
Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks
Sam Darnold is out, which means that Drew Lock will start against the Cardinals for the second time this season. When he faced them earlier in the year, he completed 19 of his 26 passes for 235 yards and three touchdowns. The Seahawks won 31-7.
In that first meeting, the Seahawks' defense smothered the Cardinals' offense, holding them to just 151 yards. Jacoby Brissett finished that game just 17-of-28 for 95 yards, and now, he's no longer even on the team. While that may seem like a good thing considering how poorly he played, it's hard to have much more faith in Gardner Minshew II, whom the Cardinals' coaches didn't even feel was good enough to start over Brissett this season.
Minshew played great last week, as he led the Cardinals to a comeback win over the Cowboys. But the Cowboys also have the 22nd-ranked pass defense, allowing 232.6 yards per game and 7.5 yards per attempt. The Seahawks rank second, allowing just 156.0 yards per game and 5.5 yards per attempt. That second number is the best mark in the league by 0.6 yards.
Pick: Seahawks -23.5 (+529)
Dallas Cowboys vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts' offense has been a disaster this season, averaging just 20.1 points per game. However, the Colts' last two games were against the top two scoring defenses in the league. I'm expecting the Colts to have a much easier time this week against a defense allowing 26.6 points per game.
Taylor is yet to rush for 100 yards this season, but he's topped 90 yards five times, despite how terrible the offense has been. Now, he gets to face the league's worst rush defense, a unit that is allowing 152.8 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry.
Taylor only ran eight times for 23 yards last week, but the Colts also lost by 35. He's still averaging 4.1 yards per carry this season, and he's scored in five of his eight games. Look for him to finally reach 100 rushing yards and score at least once in the most favorable matchup he's had this season.
Pick: Jonathan Taylor 100+ Rushing Yards + Anytime TD Scorer Parlay (+470)
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.