The MLB season continues on Saturday, with the league rolling out a full 15-game slate for us to navigate from a betting perspective. Below I've listed my top MLB picks and bets today, including a couple of plus-money picks.
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Saturday's Best MLB Picks & Bets
(Odds courtesy of BetMGM)
Tampa Bay Rays (+120) vs. New York Mets (-145) | O/U 7.0 (-120/+100) Picks
The Rays (37-32) continued their hot streak on Friday night, taking down the Mets (45-25) in a 7-5 series-opening affair. The two sides are back at it Saturday evening. We have a pitching matchup between Drew Rasmussen and Tylor Megill. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET from Citi Field in Queens, NY.
Both of these teams are playing great baseball at the moment, as the Rays are 16-6 in their last 22 games, while the Mets are in the midst of a 15-4 run. With that said, I'm a bit surprised to see Tampa Bay getting a +120 payout in this spot. They have an edge in the starting pitching department with Rasmussen taking the mound. The right-hander is 5-4 with a 2.22 ERA (10th) and a 0.90 WHIP (fourth).
Meanwhile, the Mets will send Megill to the mound. He's 5-4 as well, but owns a 3.76 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. Both bullpens rank fourth or better in ERA (Rays: 3.14; Mets: 3.06) and ninth or higher in WHIP (Rays: 1.22; Mets: 1.23). Not much separates the two sides right now, but with the Rays having a substantial edge in starting pitching, I think it's worth playing them as +120 underdogs.
Bet: Rays Moneyline (+120)
St. Louis Cardinals (+105) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-125) | O/U 8.0 (-115/-105) Picks
Let's head over to the Midwest, where the sliding Cardinals (36-34) try to snap a six-game skid against the Brewers (38-33). Andre Pallante gets the nod for the Red Birds, while the Brew Crew counters with Jose Quintana. This divisional clash gets underway at 4:10 p.m. ET from American Family Field in Milwaukee, WI.
Quintana is one of the more underrated pitchers in the Majors. The 36-year-old continues to eat innings and post serviceable numbers, as he enters the weekend with a 2.66 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in eight starts (44 innings). The southpaw has dominated the Cardinals in the past, holding their current roster to a slash line of just .117/.190/.247 over 77 at-bats. He's primed for another solid outing this evening, which I believe will help keep this final score under the total.
On the other hand, we have Pallante and his 4.75 ERA (67th) heading to the bump. The right-hander is coming off a quality start against the Blue Jays (six innings, two earned runs). I expect him to keep things rolling against a Brewers offense that has been terrible recently. Over the last seven days, Milwaukee ranks 29th in both wOBA (.280) and wRC+ (77), while sitting 28th in ISO (.109) and 25th in strikeout rate (24.4%). Give me the under in this National League Central showdown.
Bet: Under 8.0 Runs (-105)
Cleveland Guardians (+110) vs. Seattle Mariners (-130) | O/U 7.0 (-110/-110) Picks
The Mariners (34-34) cruised past the Guardians (35-33) in a 7-2 game last night, and they'll send George Kirby to the bump tonight. Cleveland counters with Tanner Bibee in this American League clash, which is set for 9:40 p.m. ET from T-Mobile Park in Seattle, WA.
Kirby has looked a bit better in his last two outings, posting a 3.00 ERA in 12 innings of work. However, I'm not convinced that the right-hander has completely turned things around just yet. He brings in a 6.53 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP across four total starts (20.2 innings) this season. Kirby also draws a matchup against a Guardians squad that has seen him well, slashing .414/.414/.655 against him over 29 at-bats.
As for Bibee, he has logged two consecutive quality starts against a couple of competitive offenses in the Yankees (6.1 innings, three earned runs) and the Astros (6.1 innings, two earned runs). The right-hander enters the weekend with a 3.81 ERA (49th) and a 1.20 WHIP (42nd). He'll take on a Mariners side that's just 2-8 in its last 10 games, averaging 3.5 runs per game during the stretch. All things considered, I think it's worth a +110 flier on the visitors in this spot.
Bet: Guardians Moneyline (+110)
