San Diego has impressed this season with an 11-1 record, earning them a national ranking of 19th in the latest AP poll. They will also host this Mountain West Championship Game thanks to a 7-1 conference record. The Aztecs’ only loss of the season came in a 30-20 defeat vs. Fresno State on October 30. San Diego State has rattled off four straight wins since that slip up.
As for Utah State, they won six of their last seven games to earn a spot to take home the Mountain West crown. Some may criticize the Aggies’ schedule, as Utah State avoided playing tough MWC opponents like San Diego State, Fresno State, and Nevada in the regular season. However, the Aggies took care of business convincingly, and they are a capable team who could pull off the upset.
We’ll break down all the betting angles of this Saturday afternoon matchup.
- Opening Line: San Diego State -5.5
- Over/Under: 50
- Location: Dignity Health Sports Park in Carson, CA
- Kickoff: 3:00 ET
San Diego State has gotten the job done with defense this season, as they rank top 10 in numerous categories for that side of the ball. Their offense is middle-of-the-pack, as they rely on limiting turnovers and playing field position to grind opponents down. It usually works too, as the Aztecs are proud owners of an 11-1 record with a winning 6-5-1 mark against the spread.
Utah State, on the other hand, is slightly more offensive-oriented. Their strong-armed quarterback, Logan Bonner, loves spreading the ball around to several wide receivers. However, they haven’t seen a defense as good as the one they’ll line up against on Saturday. This will be a major challenge for the Aggies, and Bonner’s efficiency will be a key to the game.
- Utah State is 5-1 ATS in the last six games.
- Utah State is 6-3 to the UNDER in the last nine games.
- San Diego State is 6-2 to the UNDER in the last eight games.
As mentioned in the previous section, Utah State has not seen a defense this good all season. The closest glimpse came against Boise State, and the Aggies only scored three points in that game. I’m expecting a close, low-scoring affair in this one, which is similar to how things have been going for San Diego State towards the second half of the season.
The Pick: Under 50
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