Introducing the Week 8 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 8 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Bengals vs. Eagles.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 8 Betting Primer>>
Philadelphia Eagles @ Cincinnati Bengals
Sides:
- The Bengals are 14-6 ATS on the road.
- The Bengals have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games against teams with losing records.
- The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 games against AFC North opponents.
- The Bengals have won 13 of their last 19 home games.
- The Bengals are 9-6-1 ATS as home favorites and 12-6 straight up at home.
- The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 13 games.
- The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 11 games against teams that held a losing record.
- The Eagles have lost five of their last eight games as favorites.
- The Eagles are 4-11-2 ATS when their defense allowed 20 or more points since the start of last season. They covered just three spreads when they allowed 20 points on defense.
- But at home in their last 21 games - 13-8 ATS as home favorites.
- The Eagles have lost five of their last seven road games.
- Philadelphia ATS on the road: 5-12-1 (29%).
Totals:
- Four of the Bengals' last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Seven of the Bengals' last 10 games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
- Nine of the Bengals' last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line
- The Eagles are 11-13 O/U since the start of 2023. But they are 4-10 toward the over on the road.
- Seven of the Eagles' last eight road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- The majority of their shootouts have come at home. The Eagles are 7-3 toward the OVER at home since start of 2023
Overall:
During the preseason, we would have viewed Bengals-Eagles as a potential Super Bowl matchup. Both teams haven't lived up to expectations thus far, which is why this matchup is so fascinating.
What stands out to me the most is just how bad the Eagles have been against the number playing on the road. 5-12-1 (29%). Woof.
Meanwhile, Cincy has tended to play well in front of the home crowd.
We know that both these offenses have firepower. BettingPros Terrell Furman suggested as much on this week's NFL Week 8 Best Bets on BettingPros, where he took over at 47.5 points.
Will I tail? Keep reading. Just kidding. Of course, I'm chasing the over here.
But I'm not convinced that it's the best bet in this contest. The Eagles’ underwhelming performances on the road have been reflective more on offense. Seven of the Eagles' last eight road games have gone UNDER the total points line. Philly also boasts the second-best red zone defense.
And as easy as it once was to slice the Bengals’ defense like a hot knife through butter, they've gotten much healthier on the defensive line. That should help "slow down" Saquon Barkley. The Bengals defense has been a sure-tackling unit this year. Per Next Gen Stats, the Bengals have missed a tackle on just 10.1% of their tackle opportunities this season, the lowest missed tackle rate in the NFL.
But aside from that...the defense still might struggle overall, given they won't be facing Deshaun Watson/Daniel Jones this week.
There's no denying that skill position players on both sides of the ball can take over this game, hence my hesitance to bet the under. It also scares me because both teams are coming off unders in the divisional matchup (which typically tend to be more tight contests, given the familiarity).
Scared money doesn't make money.
I'll tail the over and take the Bengals -2.5. I think the Bengals will get out of their two-game offensive funk against an Eagles defense that has struggled to generate consistent pressure. Per Next Gen Stats, The Eagles have generated pressure on just 31.6% of dropbacks this season, their lowest pressure rate as a team over the last seven seasons and the 13th-lowest in the NFL.
Props:
DeVonta Smith BOMBED last week. But it was in a game where the Eagles barely threw the ball. Jalen Hurts attempted 14 passes-his lowest attempt total since 2021. Last week was a glaring outlier, so go right back to the Smith receiving props. No defense has faced more targets to No. 2 WRs than the Bengals this season.
Before last week, Smith had gone over 57.5 receiving yards in every single game this season (four games). Smith also went over 57.5 receiving yards in every game that Dallas Goedert missed in 2023.
BUY THE DIP.
My Picks:
- Bengals -2.5
- Over 47.5
- DeVonta Smith OVER 55.5 receiving yards
