Best NFL Player Props & Picks: Broncos vs. Chargers (Week 5)

The Denver Broncos visit the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium on Sunday, October 11, for a Week 5 AFC West matchup kicking off at 4:05 p.m. ET. Looking for the best NFL player props for Broncos vs. Chargers? Our BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet has generated +86 units of profit through four weeks, with a 52.6% win rate and 3.5% ROI across 2,496 picks. We use player workloads, matchup analysis and projections to break down our favorite prop bets for Denver vs. Los Angeles.

NFL Player Props, Picks & Predictions: Broncos vs. Chargers

Here are some of Andrew Erickson’s top picks for Broncos vs. Chargers. And check out all of his top picks for NFL Week 5.

Best Bets for Broncos vs. Chargers

The Broncos have the NFL’s worst first-half offense. They have scored one TD in the first half in four games this season, averaging a meager 3.3 PPG in the first half (dead-last). The Chargers? Not much better.

Just 7.5 first-half points per game (27th).

And that was before the Los Angeles Chargers suffered more offensive-line injuries. Two starting tackles are likely out for Week 5: Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater. Chargers No. 1 WR Ladd McConkey also re-injured his foot last week.

So even though the Denver Broncos are down two starting CBs, Pat Surtain and Riley Moss, coverage matters less when the QB doesn’t have time to throw. I think both defenses (even Denver minus their CBs) have trench advantages.

The Bolts defense actually played half-way decent last week.

In Week 4 versus Seattle, they finished 8th in EPA/play allowed, 10th in yards/play, and generated the 3rd-highest QB pressure rate. Seattle went just 3-for-12 on third downs. The Chargers now rank 7th in pressure rate on the season.

Both defenses also rank top-12 in red-zone conversion rate.

The Chargers are also clearly the worst offense Denver has faced so far this season (KC, JAX, LAR, SF), and only one of those games has surpassed 41 total points.

Overall, both teams are 1-3 toward the Over this season, and their eight combined games have gone 6-2 toward the Under. Both teams are 0-2 toward the total in their respective home/road roles.

The last time these two teams met in Week 18 of 2025, the total stayed under 42.5 points. In their first matchup played in LA last year, the final score was 23-20 (went under the 45.5-point total).

League-wide so far through 2026: closing line totals of 42 or less are only 8-5 Under.

My official best bet is under in the first half…but I think both the first half and full game total under are firmly in play.

Update: On Thursday, it was confirmed that HC Sean Payton would reclaim play-calling duties to jump-start the offense. But let’s add the context about how it might not just be on OC Davis Webb for the lack of slow starts. Denver was middle of the pack in first-half points scored LAST season. And they had all those second-half comebacks because they were constantly behind in games LAST season, when Payton was still calling plays. I, for one, believe this sluggish offense is a Bo Nix problem. Not aggressive enough downfield to generate explosives. I could see a scenario where Denver scores on their first possession but then goes super conservative versus an offense missing its two starting tackles.

I already labeled Broncos-Chargers first half as one of my best bets this week before the play-calling switch. Definitely don’t love it. So an interesting hedge if you are having second thoughts…Broncos to score on first drive is +114 odds (any points count). They get into the red zone on a big pass play because Payton is sick of his offense not scoring in the first half…but then they stall out in the red zone and settle for 3.

Let’s have our cake (wedding cake obviously) and eat it too.

Erickson’s Picks

First Half Under 21.5

Best NFL Same Game Parlay for Broncos vs. Chargers

Here is our top NFL same game parlay for Broncos vs. Chargers. And you can view all of our Week 5 NFL same game parlays.

Leg 1: Courtland Sutton Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Leg 2: RJ Harvey 25+ Receiving Yards (-151)
Leg 3: Omarion Hampton 40+ Rushing Yards (-110)

After a 2-2 start and last week's loss to San Francisco, the Broncos are switching up offensive play-calling duties. Sean Payton announced he's taking over after the offense struggled under coordinator Davis Webb. Let's hope this change helps Courtland Sutton finally get going.

Sutton has only 86 receiving yards through four games, with a game-high of just 46. However, this is still a player who has had over 1,000 yards in the previous two seasons. Payton will likely try to dial up ways to get Sutton open for Bo Nix in the passing attack. The 36.5 line is laughably (but understandably) low for Sutton this week.

One of Denver's bright spots on offense has been RJ Harvey as a pass-catcher. The running back had 68 receiving yards on 10 catches last week and 41 yards on six catches the game prior. Payton taking over the offense could also lead to more usage for Harvey, especially through quick passes that get him the ball in space. Plus, he now has 20+ receiving yards in 10 of his last 12 games with Denver.

As for the Chargers' offense, Omarion Hampton has an ideal matchup. The Broncos are allowing 4.8 yards per carry this year (seventh-highest in the NFL) and 113.5 rushing yards per game to opposing backs (sixth-highest). Hampton is averaging a solid 4.0 yards per carry, and he has 40+ yards in each game. He should get there once more this week.

Parlay Odds: +470

Best NFL Player Props for Broncos vs. Chargers

We compiled several projection sources to come up with consensus projections. We then compared these projections to the NFL player prop bet odds from the sportsbooks to give you the best NFL player prop bet picks. View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.

Our NFL Player Prop Bet Cheat Sheet assists bettors by comparing lines from leading sportsbooks with our daily NFL projections.

What is an NFL player prop bet?

An NFL player prop bet is a type of wager where you’re betting on the performance of a specific player in a game rather than the overall outcome. For example, you might place a bet on how many passing yards a quarterback will throw for, or how many touchdowns a running back will score. It’s a fun way to get more invested in the action, especially if you’re confident in how a particular player will perform, regardless of who wins or loses the game. It’s like focusing on one slice of the pie instead of the whole thing.

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