Bills vs. Eagles: NFL Week 12 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets

I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Bills vs. Eagles.

NFL Betting Primer: Bills vs. Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Buffalo Bills (-3.5)

We saw a heavy run game plan by the Eagles to expose the Chiefs' weaker run defense on Monday Night Football. They have shown the ability and welcomed rushing the ball at times this season, in advantageous spots and Buffalo's poor run defense is the exact spot for them to keep the ground game going.

The Eagles' high-powered offense ranks 5th in points per game (27.3). Their fatal flaw had been in the red zone, but it's improved dramatically since the start. Now, it's 9^th-best in the NFL.

The Eagles defense ranks 25th in red-zone defense - one of the easiest red-zone defenses the Bills have faced this season. Buffalo's red-zone offense ranks 3^rd best in the NFL.

The average total between these two teams this season is 46. But Philly is 3-1 toward the over at home, where the games have averaged a whopping 56.5 points. Their last four games have been 2-2 O/U but three have been totals of 48-plus before this past week.

The Eagles have also won each of their last seven games at Lincoln Financial Field.

However, the Eagles have also covered just 2 spreads when they have allowed 20 points on defense.

By a half point and barely against the Cowboys back in Week 9. They also pushed twice. 2-2-2 ATS when their defense allows 20 points. Been very lucky. Buffalo has scored at least 20 points in 8 of their 11 games played this season.

The Eagles also wouldn't have covered last week if the Chiefs hadn't blown their scoring opportunities in the second half of MNF. A red-zone fumble by Travis Kelce and a massive drop in the end zone by Marquez Valdes-Scantling nuked their offense.

Again, they got lucky. In fact, the Eagles have been one of the luckiest teams in the NFL this season. The unluckiest team? The Buffalo Bills.

The Bills have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games.

They were a mess entering Week 11 - even though their offense has been a top unit across several advanced metrics - but they righted the ship against Zach Wilson-led Jets squad.

Week 11 was more of the same from Buffalo. They have either dramatically underwhelmed or blown their opponents' doors off this season when at home. Their three strongest offensive outputs have come at home. 5-1 overall at home and 3-3 ATS. Along with 4 straight unders.

Road Buffalo has been much tougher to back. They are 1-4 straight up and ATS on the road/neutral sites this season despite being favorites in all contests.

Playing versus the Jets is the cure for all, but it might not be enough to get this Bills team truly over the hump.

However, the fact that this is a matchup featuring the luckiest team against the unluckiest team has me thinking contrarian. And that this could be an upset with some bizarre events likely to unfold.

After all, betting on Allen in a potential shootout isn't a bad way to maximize a bet. Keep in mind that nine of the Bills’ last 10 games as underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.

They're coming off 4 straight unders.

If we see a regression to the mean kick in massively here, we could easily see the Bills win in a wild shootout. If you want to play it safer take the over at 48.5 or Bills +3.5. But if you are feeling frisky, I'd back Buffalo ML (+145) against the Eagles playing on a short week.

As for props, I think the move is to rinse and repeat what we did last week. Attack DeVonta Smith and D'Andre Swift OVERs. The books have yet to fully adjust their numbers in the wake of the Dallas Goedert injury. I expect both guys to see an uptick in receiving usage as a result as we saw last week versus the Chiefs.

Swift caught 3 receptions for 31 yards, with a long of 20 yards. Smith led the Eagles receivers with 6 receptions on 8 targets (38% Target share), 99 yards, with a long catch of 41 yards

Last season after DG got hurt, Smith went on a tear posting 8 of 10 games played with 60-plus receiving yards. He's on a new streak now.

Meanwhile Swift has at least 2 receptions in 7 straight games. With Philly potentially facing a negative game script in a potential back-and-forth contest like last week, I like Swift to get over 2-plus catches AGAIN with the vacated target share left by Goedert.

This game could be a prime spot for some same-game parlay madness.

My Picks:

Bills +3.5
Over 48.5

My Props:

What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.