College Football Odds, Picks & Predictions: Week 6 (Friday)

Friday night college football delivers a strong three-game card to kick off Week 6, with a potential ACC shootout, a Big Ten defensive slugfest, and a Big 12 matchup where injuries could swing the spread. Here are the best bets for Friday night.

Week 6 College Football Friday Best Bets

Odds as of Friday morning. Lines may move before kickoff.

Florida State vs. Louisville Picks

A total of 59 looks steep at first glance, especially with Florida State sitting at 4-1 to the under this season. But dig into those results and the under trend looks softer than the record suggests.

The Seminoles’ lone over came against Alabama in a 50-36 shootout that cleared the number by a wide margin. Their 38-7 win over Virginia stayed under largely because Virginia couldn’t hold up its end. And the SMU game slipped under a 52.5 total by just a point and a half, a final that would have landed comfortably below tonight’s 59 anyway, but showed this offense can put up points.

Louisville, meanwhile, is a 4-1 over team, and its overs haven’t been close calls. The Cardinals cleared 57.5 against NC State, 57.5 against SMU, 56.5 against Villanova, and 54.5 against Ole Miss. Their offense can move the ball on just about anyone.

The matchup numbers back it up:

• Florida State averages 33 points per game and allows 25, but gives up 419 total yards per game.
• Louisville averages 33.5 points per game, allows 33, and gives up 465.5 total yards per game.

Two explosive offenses, two defenses that bend plenty. Expect fireworks on a Friday night in the ACC.

Pick: Over 59

Iowa vs. Washington Picks

This one is the complete opposite story. When Iowa takes the field, the starting point is the under, and the Hawkeyes are 4-1 to the under this season. Their lone road game, a 20-9 game at Michigan, stayed under a closing total of 39.5.

Washington has leaned the same way at 3-2 to the under. In their last outing, the Huskies lost 25-21 to USC, holding the Trojans to 25 points as that game fell 11.5 points under a 57.5 total.

Both teams want to run the ball, shorten the game, and win with defense:

• Iowa allows just 15.8 points per game (top 15 nationally), 4.9 yards per play (40th), and 3.0 yards per carry (19th). Opponents are completing only 41.7% of their passes (top 25).
• Washington allows 19 points per game, 6.7 yards per pass play (top 50), and 3.2 yards per rush (top 25).

Two teams that hang their hats on defense and grind the clock in a Friday night road game in Seattle. This sets up as a low-scoring Big Ten battle.

Pick: Under 41.5

Iowa State at BYU Picks

On paper, BYU has been one of the best bets in the country, sitting 4-0 against the spread and 2-0 ATS at home. If the Cougars were healthy, laying 10.5 would be an easy call. They’re not.

BYU’s injury report is brutal heading into this short-week spot:

• First- and second-string running backs out
• All-conference linebacker out
• One of their best starting offensive tackles out
• Top safety out

That’s a lot of missing pieces for an offense that already has had trouble against quality defenses, and a defense missing two of its most important players.

Iowa State is the kind of team you want to back in this spot. The Cyclones have a long history of covering as underdogs, keeping games close, and fighting for four quarters. A double-digit road dog with an “us against the world” mentality, facing a depleted opponent on a short week, is a classic buy-low spot.

BYU may still win this game, but covering 10.5 with this much missing depth is asking a lot.

Pick: Iowa State +10.5