It’s slim pickings for sports bettors on Thursday with just six MLB games on the schedule. However, there’s still value to be had from a home run prop betting perspective, as dependable sluggers and advantageous showdowns are lined up for action.
Here’s a look at three players worth backing to launch a ball beyond the fence on Thursday, May 15th.
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Thursday's Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Freddie Freeman (+360)
Freddie Freeman will play a home game facing a right-handed starting pitcher on Thursday night. That is the exact situation in which he has excelled time and again in 2025. The former MVP is slashing .370/.469/.704 with four home runs and 12 RBI through 16 home games. He is slashing .386/.446/.736 with seven homers and 27 RBI across 87 at-bats versus right-handers. It’s been pure domination from Freeman.
Osvaldo Bido of the Athletics will be on the mound to battle the Dodgers. The third-year pro has allowed a staggering nine dingers in his last five starts, and they haven’t been cheap shots. The average distance of those jacks is 408 feet. Freeman is squaring up the baseball at the fifth-highest rate in the league (44.8%) and benefits from a fantastic matchup. It makes betting on him to go deep twice an intriguing longshot option.
Gunnar Henderson (+350)
The Orioles need their stars to get going if they want to make up ground in the American League East. Shortstop Gunnar Henderson has done his best to build momentum, posting an impressive 1.072 OPS alongside three home runs and seven RBI in May. Note that he is not wasting his swings this campaign. Henderson is a top-12 batter in hard-hit percentage (56%) and average exit velocity (94.9 miles per hour).
Up next for Henderson is a clash with Minnesota’s Chris Paddack. The veteran hurler has been tagged for a homer in four of his previous five starts and has had trouble at Oriole Park at Camden Yards before. Baltimore crushed Paddack for nine runs on 12 hits in April of 2024. A 373-foot moonshot to right field off the bat of Henderson was an early dagger in that contest. One pitch left too much in the zone may be all it takes for history to repeat itself.
Daulton Varsho (+400)
Let’s switch focus from one man on a roll to another. Toronto outfielder Daulton Varsho has tallied five home runs during the past two weeks, boosting his slugging percentage to a team-high .625. It’s a notable improvement for someone who is usually in the lineup for his defensive prowess. Varsho’s hard-hit percentage is over 20% higher than it was last season, so it’s smart to strike while the iron is hot.
That’s especially the case considering Zack Littell draws the start for the Rays on Thursday. Varsho is 4-for-9 with a homer and a double against the Tampa Bay righty in his career. It’s worth pointing out that Littell is also one of only seven MLB pitchers to concede at least 10 blasts this year and ranks outside the top 320 qualified pitchers in barrel percentage. Trust Varsho to go yard for a chance at a healthy payout.
