Here are our top MLB picks & predictions for Tuesday, September 23rd.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Detroit Tigers (-158) at Cleveland Guardians (+128) | O/U 6.5 (-112/-108)
This is one of the bigger series of the week as it could determine the winner of the American League Central. The Tigers are free-falling to the point where they could lose the division. In September, they are just 5-13, and it's been both the hitting and pitching that have struggled. In September, they are 22nd in wOBA (.300) and 27th in ERA.
Tarik Skubal appears to be the only player who has been immune to the regression. He’s allowed one run or fewer in three of his last four starts.
As if it couldn’t get worse for the Tigers, the Guardians are one of the hottest teams in baseball. Coming into September, they were 10.5 games out of first place in the division. They are now just one game back with six to go. They have the best pitching in baseball this month, with a league-leading 2.32 ERA in September, a full run lower than the next team. Gavin Williams has been lights out recently. Over his last four starts, he's allowed two runs or fewer in each, with the Guardians winning all four. That includes against the Tigers in his previous start, but Skubal didn't pitch in that game.
It's challenging to go against Skubal in the Tigers’ biggest game of the season. It's also difficult to back the Tigers’ lineup. The pitching matchup could lead to a lower-scoring game.
Pick: Under 6.5 Runs (-108)
New York Mets (-101) at Chicago Cubs (-120) | O/U 7.5 (-105/-115)
For the first time since April 5th, the Mets don’t solely own a playoff spot. At the moment, they are tied with the Reds for the final Wild Card, but the Mets do own the tiebreaker because they have the better record against division opponents.
It might not matter because they are playing like they don't want to be in the postseason. Since September 6th, they have lost 10 out of their last 14 games, and it's all on the pitching, as they rank 24th in ERA (4.70). This was the best pitching staff in baseball at the start of the year, and it is remarkable how quickly it went downhill. This includes David Peterson, who has allowed 21 earned runs over his last four starts (17 innings). Now he has to face the Cubs, who are hitting .270 lifetime against him.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline (-120)
