The Tampa Bay Rays staved off elimination with a thrilling 12th-inning rally to defeat the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 4 of the World Series. Tampa will look to continue its postseason on Wednesday, while the Brewers will look to capture their first World Series championship in franchise history. Plenty remains to be determined with the Game 5 lineups. But here are a few MLB World Series player props I am playing for Wednesday's matchup.
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Wednesday’s Best MLB World Series Player Props
Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-124 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
As of this writing, the Tampa Bay Rays have not officially named a starting pitcher for Game 5. I am also not sure it matters much considering how hot Milwaukee leadoff hitter Jackson Chourio has been at the plate.
Chourio recorded his fourth consecutive multi-hit effort in Tuesday's defeat. The 22-year-old now has 10 hits, four runs scored and two runs driven in during the Fall Classic.
Early morning speculation suggests the Rays may start Steven Matz. Chourio has had success against the veteran left-hander, including a home run and a single in three trips to the plate. Matz has allowed a .507 slugging rate to righties this season, including .529 at home.
I don't mind going the total bases route with Chourio if Matz is confirmed before the sportsbooks adjust. The best current price for Chourio to record at least two total bases is +125 at theScore Bet and Fanatics Sportsbook. For now, I will go with the combo prop in case the Rays decide to go in a different direction.
Jacob Misiorowski Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-111 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
It may feel uneasy to bet against a pitcher who struck out 38% of batters during the regular season. But that is exactly what I am doing. I am betting against Brewers starting pitcher Jacob Misiorowski striking out more than five Tampa Bay Rays.
Despite Misiorowski's incredible season, the 24-year-old has had a hard time getting postseason punchouts. His playoff strikeout rate sits at just 25.5%. That includes Game 1 of the World Series, when he fanned just three Rays batters.
Misiorowski did strike out seven Rays in a regular-season matchup. But that day's lineup included Cedric Mullins, who struck out three times versus Misiorowski. All other Tampa hitters have struck out just six times in 38 at-bats against the fireballing right-hander. Mullins has not started a single postseason game and will not face Misiorowski on Wednesday.
Although Milwaukee used its entire bullpen on Tuesday, most of its relievers should be available for Game 5. Misiorowski has faced no more than 19 batters or recorded more than 15 outs in any of his other three playoff starts this month. I do not expect him to go particularly long in this outing either.
No Brewers starting pitcher has struck out more than four batters in a game this series. And as dominant as Misiorowski can be, I don’t expect that to change in this game. I am taking the Under on his 5.5 strikeouts prop in this matchup.
Chandler Simpson Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+135 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
One reason I like fading Jacob Misiorowski's strikeout total is Rays outfielder Chandler Simpson. Simpson is as extreme a contact hitter as you will find in Major League Baseball.
During the regular season, Simpson walked or struck out in just 12% of his plate appearances. That number is even lower in the postseason - 9.1% entering Game 5.
Simpson has recorded at least two combined hits + runs + RBIs in six out of eight playoff games in which Tampa's opponent has used a right-handed starting pitcher. That includes all three games during this World Series. Simpson is 6-for-16 with two runs scored and an RBI in this series.
Simpson has struck out once in his career versus Misiorowski. But he is also the only Rays hitter to have multiple hits against the right-hander. Collectively, Rays hitters are batting .242 versus Misiorowski, which is much higher than his baselines. I am expecting Simpson to get at least one hit in this game, which could easily lead to a run and/or a run batted in given Simpson's speed and expected place in Wednesday's batting order.
