With elections tomorrow, a long list of games is on the horizon today, with no games tomorrow. Let’s add some market-based +EV NBA picks to today’s betting portfolio. Let’s start the week strong.
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Monday’s Best +EV NBA Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
Jalen Johnson Over 7.5 Assists (+150 at Polymarket)
- Fair Value: +111
- Market EV: +19%
Jalen Johnson has missed this line in two consecutive games. He had only seven potential assists against the Pelicans in his last game. That said, in the last five games, he’s averaged 8.2 assists and 13 potential assists per game.
Johnson will likely play 30+ minutes. He’s already averaging 34.4 minutes per game over the last five games. The Hawks take on the Pacers tonight. Without Tyrese Haliburton, the Pacers will likely start to slip in the standings. It’s the same story as last season.
Johnson could have a big day in the box score, including assists. At a market EV of 11%, grab Johnson to go over 7.5 assists at +150 on Polymarket.
Julian Champagnie Under 10.5 Points (-125 at BetRivers)
- Fair Value: -184
- Market EV: +17%
Julian Champagnie has averaged 12.4 points over his last five games. However, he’s averaged fewer than eight shots per game, with most of them from downtown.
That said, Champagnie scored only six points against the Jazz in his first meeting with them. He played over 31 minutes and took only four three-pointers. He drained two. That’s why I’m comfortable taking Champagne to go under 10.5 points at -125 on BetRivers, especially with the fair value at -184.
Nolan Traore Over 4.5 Assists (+140 at ProphetX)
- Fair Value: +116
- Market EV: +11%
With Egor Demin out and Mikel Brown Jr. playing sporadically, Nolan Traore has had to step up. He had six assists in his last game against the Pacers and helped push the Nets to a victory.
Brown could play in this game. There isn’t much data on Traore playing without Demin and with Brown - only one game, and Traore had just two assists on nine potential assists. That number should eventually change and come back to life.
Let’s back Traore to go over 4.5 assists at +140 on ProphetX. The fair value is +116, giving this an 11% positive EV.
