It's another day of NBA play. We have a good first handful of data under our belts. We bounced back last time after a tough outing and have been doing well overall. As always, monitor any potential news and lineup announcements. The best way to stay informed about NBA player props is by staying up-to-date with the latest news. The second-best way is to shop around at different sportsbooks. Player props rarely have identical odds across platforms, so ensure you get the best value. We have four games today, so plenty of options to cover. Let's get to it.
Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be for a single unit.
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Thursday’s Best NBA Player Prop Bets
Last Season: 174-125 | This Season: 21-14 | Last Time: 4-2
Keldon Johnson Under 23.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-115 at Hard Rock Bet)
Keldon Johnson has been playing minutes all over the place recently, leading him to cover this line in two straight games easily. However, before that, he had only reached 24 on the combo prop in five of his six previous games.
While Atlanta is currently banged up, they have a surprising top-10 defense. Despite the recent past, the Hawks have not exactly been the fastest-paced team either, leading to a projected 230 total. This prop is simply over-inflated from two good games. However, with the rotation, Johnson shouldn't see enough playing time to justify this prop being at 24. I expect this to catch some steam, so get on the under before it's too late.
Ivica Zubac Under 31.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-118 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Another player I'm buying the under on tonight is the big man for Los Angeles. The Clippers continue their long road trip out east in Orlando with an early start time against a solid defense. The Magic have allowed the fifth-fewest combined points + assists + rebounds to opposing centers all season. And while it has only been 15 games, Orlando's defense is improved at home.
Ivica Zubac has only covered this line once in his last five games. While I'm usually on team positive regression, this prop is still too high. The total is below 220, and Zubac’s usage rate is a fine 20% while he's only playing 31 minutes a night with some outstanding data points to skew the mean. The big man can get his double-double on any given night, but I don't expect him to go over a combined 30 points + assists + rebounds in Florida.
Ryan Rollins Under 31.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-104 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Without Giannis Antetokounmpo in the lineup, the props for Milwaukee have been all over the place. One that has changed too much is this Ryan Rollins prop. The starting Bucks guard has only hit this prop in four of his 15 games this year. While I understand you can't blindly take that stat, it's tough to justify this line of 31.5.
Philadelphia is playing in a back-to-back, so their lineup might see some changes, but they will still pace down Milwaukee with their fifth-slowest league pace. I expect the Bucks to struggle offensively.
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.