Merry Christmas! Welcome to another day of NBA player props & bets as we spend time with loved ones and enjoy a day full of sports. Hopefully Santa brought you all the presents you were looking for, and hitting bets is on your Christmas list as well.
As always, monitor any potential news and lineup announcements. The best way to stay informed about NBA player props is to stay up-to-date with the latest news. The second-best way is to shop around at different sportsbooks. Player props rarely have identical odds across platforms, so ensure you get the best value. We have a solid five-game slate today, so we have plenty of options. Let's get to it.
Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be for a single unit.
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>
Thursday’s Best NBA Player Prop Bets
Last Time: 3-3 | This Season: 35-25 | Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be a single unit.
Donovan Mitchell Under 36.5 Points + Assists (-119 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
I'm generally riding the under on Cleveland-New York. Cleveland is coming off a dominant 141-point performance, but that game was at home against the New Orleans Pelicans. The New York Knicks are not the New Orleans Pelicans. Primarily, New York is a big pace-down spot for Cleveland, coming in as the fifth-slowest team in the NBA. The possession rate will be down for Donovan Mitchell and Co. across the board.
The Knicks’ defense generally ranks in the top half of the league, but at home, that jumps to a top-10 rate, going 14-2 when playing at Madison Square Garden. They also do a good job limiting opposing guards, and Mitchell might still be below his regular 34 minutes a night coming off injury, seeing the court for fewer than 30 minutes in his last two outings. The total for this game is a healthy 240 points, and I simply don't see it. The props are inflated along with the total, and I'm zagging where the sportsbook zig.
Stephon Castle Under 28.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-105 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
The most exciting game on today's slate has got to be San Antonio taking on Oklahoma City. The Spurs beat the Thunder in the NBA Cup, which was unexpected, but then came back out and handled Oklahoma City at home, beating the reigning champs 130-110 on Tuesday. I know the Thunder weren’t at full strength, but this was also without a full Victor Wembanyama.
Considering half of Oklahoma City’s losses have come at the hands of the Spurs, this will be quite an interesting game. Still, I expect the data to skew back towards the mean. Oklahoma City is not only favored by double digits at some sportsbooks but owns the best defense in the league by a long shot. They're undefeated at home, and the difference in defensive rating from them and the second-place Pistons is the same between the Pistons and the 15th-ranked Cavaliers.
I expect the Thunder to handle business here. Among Spurs players, there are a handful of options for taking unders, but Stephon Castle seems to be the most overpriced. Since returning from injury, his minutes have fluctuated, and it seems like he's due more for 26 minutes tonight rather than 30. The Thunder sport a deadly defense, and I don't really see Castle putting up a performance greater than his seasonal averages.
Jamal Murray Under 25.5 Points (-115 at BetMGM)
I’m tempted to bet on LeBron James on Christmas Day, I mean, this may be the last time to do that ever, and with Luka Doncic questionable, I support the bet, but another direction calls me. I'm once again surprised by the high total in this matchup as Minnesota travels to the Mile High City to take on Denver.
Jamal Murray has been solid of late, scoring 27 and 31 points in his last two matchups. However, those were against much easier opponents than Minnesota. The Timberwolves boast the fifth-best defense while coming in below average in pace of play, along with Denver. The Nuggets may boast the most efficient offense in the league, but that is in large part thanks to Nikola Jokic, with Murray coming in at around a 27% usage rate on the season.
The thing with betting on the Nuggets guard is alternates. In six of his last seven games, he's either gone over 30 points or below 17. He's not one to score around his 25 points per game average, but given this Minnesota matchup, I'm comfortable riding the under.
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.