Welcome to another day of NBA prop betting as we turn the calendar to December and hunker down for the cold. It was a rough go last time, but we're still green on the season, and I intend to keep it that way. As always, monitor any potential news and lineup announcements. The best way to stay informed about NBA player props is to stay up-to-date with the latest news. The second-best way is to shop around at different sportsbooks. Player props rarely have identical odds across platforms, so ensure you get the best value. We have a plethora of games today, so plenty of options to cover. Let's get to it.
Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be for a single unit.
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Wednesday’s Best NBA Player Prop Bets
Last Time: 2-1 | This Season: 23-18
Michael Porter Jr. Over 26.5 Points + Assists (-110 at Hard Rock Bet)
After missing a few games with injuries, Michael Porter Jr. made his return on Monday against Charlotte, posting 35 points. Usually, after such a ceiling-type of performance, I’m fading a player who usually comes down to Earth with an inflated prop. This feels different. Porter is getting incredible usage around 30% a night, taking over 18 shots per game. Against Charlotte, he managed 24. That's why I think he'll be just fine tonight.
There are almost no two teams that have a wider gap in pace of play than the Nets and Bulls. Porter will get ample opportunities to get his shots up. If not, he's capable of dishing out assists like it's Thanksgiving dinner. While this number is elevated, he's still covered it in six of his last seven games and was limited in the one game he didn't. That's more of a trend than a hot streak, and the sportsbooks are simply behind on adjusting.
Anthony Davis Over 34.5 Points + Rebounds (-115 at Hard Rock Bet)
It's hard to trust Anthony Davis to play on any given night, but when he's on the court, it's impressive. After some time off, he went into Denver and willed Dallas to a victory over the Nuggets with 32 points and 13 boards. Some big numbers after averaging 21 points a game throughout the season so far. Then again, two games before that, he only posted 12 points, but I'm not sure he was at 100%.
Of course, Davis may never be at 100%, but he had a 35% usage rate last time out with 23 field-goal attempts, so I'm putting my trust in him tonight. Davis also faces the fastest-paced team in the league, and Dallas is a top-six unit, hence the 240-point total. I get that this number is elevated, but the doubt in Davis' health has capped it. When Davis is balling, he's balling. That's what I expect of him tonight.
Andrew Nembhard Under 22.5 Points + Assists (-106 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
I feel bad for Pacers fans after such a wonderful season with their best player out for the year, and it's only gotten worse. A 4-17 start is nothing to hang your hat on. Tonight at home, they sit around 8-point underdogs to Denver, and I don't think it's enough. Andrew Nembhard has been consistent this season, but his usage rate has dipped to 19% over the last four games compared to his seasonal 24% clip.
The BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet places this combo prob closer to 18.5, and I completely agree. Nembhard's usage is concerning, and the Pacers' 29th-ranked defense is anything but dynamic. The Indiana guard hasn't covered this line in three of his last four games, and I expect that to continue in this matchup.
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.