And just like that, we've reached the Sweet 16. While there weren't many upsets to be had in the first weekend, we were treated to a spectacular showing by Iowa's takedown of Florida, while Vanderbilt-Nebraska and St. John's-Kansas came down to the literal buzzer. And now, we do it all again. The Sweet 16 features KenPom's top 13 teams, meaning this really is the best of the best going toe-to-toe. For this article, I will be previewing Friday's East region matchups. Check out my top NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 picks for the East region.
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NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Picks: East Region
No. 1 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 5 St. John's Red Storm
To start Friday off, we have Duke taking on St. John's in Washington, D.C. The Blue Devils find themselves here after struggling against Sienna but recovered well to handle TCU, beating them 81-58. The first half was close with the score 38-34, but Duke dominated the second half with the help of Cameron Boozer, going 7-of-10 from the field, and the return of Patrick Ngongba. We'll get to him more in a second.
St. John’s is back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1999 and had to fight off a scare against Kansas to earn a trip to the second weekend. Rick Pitino's squad led by as many as 14 points before letting Kansas claw back to tie it late before Dylan Darling cashed in a layup as time expired - his only shot of the day. The Red Storm is in for a battle here.
This game is going to be run by defenses. Both squads rank in the top 10 nationally and in the top five since the start of 2026. While St. John's ranks 45th in field-goal attempt rate, a lot of it comes from second-chance looks and ball control. With 6-foot-11 Ngongba back in the lineup, even if not fully healthy, it makes Duke's top-10 defensive rebound rate more secure.
The Blue Devils won't allow any free trips to the charity stripe and will force opponents to the perimeter, with opponents’ three-point attempt rate ranking 29th nationally. That is not good for the Red Storm, who score 26% of their points from deep - 302nd in the country.
On the other side of the ball, Boozer and Co. will have their work cut out for them down low. Energizer Bunny Zuby Ejiofor had a top-three block rate in the Big East. Pitino's squad should be able to keep Duke honest on the offensive glass, limiting their second-chance conversion rate, which they lean on for a lot of their scoring.
I will say, the referees will likely have a big say in the outcome of this game. If they let them play, you'll see a battle every possession with ugly shot after ugly shot. If they are tighter with the game, there's a good chance Boozer and/or Ejiofor get into foul trouble, and we see a lot of free throws.
Either way, we've seen the Red Storm’s shot making, or inability to, and Duke, without Caleb Foster running point, has taken a step back offensively. With both teams keeping the other out of the lane and contesting each look, I expect points to be at a premium in this one.
Pick: Under 142.5 Points (-114 at BetRivers)
No. 2 UConn Huskies vs. No. 3 Michigan State Spartans
The other game on Friday in the East Region features UConn and Michigan State, both taking a crack at getting back to the Elite Eight. Both teams have handled business without too much of a scare thus far, but only one can move on.
For UConn, it will be interesting to see if they can put everything together. After Silas Demary Jr. missed the opening Furman match, he and Solo Ball both struggled to connect against UCLA, combining for two total points after Ball went 0-5 from the field in just 13 minutes of play.
Alex Karaban bailed them out with a 27-point effort, and UCLA's offense cratering helped, but I don't think you can expect the same against the Spartans. If Karaban isn't scoring, can anyone else step up?
Tarris Reed is the obvious next choice, but I don't expect him to get 27 rebounds again as he did against Furman. Michigan State is the single best defensive rebounding team in the country. UConn went 0-3 when grabbing fewer than 21% of their misses this season, and they might not get there against Michigan State.
The Spartans allow a lot of looks from deep while allowing the seventh-fewest shots attacking the rim on defense, per ShotQuality. Since January 1st, UConn has ranked 174th in three-point shooting rate, and Demary isn't exactly a big confidence boost right now, despite shooting nearly 41% from deep this year.
Michigan State will be able to take advantage of UConn's top-60 defensive foul rate, and I trust their ability to win the battle on the boards. Coen Carr has looked something special this tournament, with Michigan State leading 73 of the 80 minutes played so far.
UConn is going to struggle offensively every which way, and Izzo has the momentum and offensive scheme to take down Dan Hurley and the Huskies. I'm actually shocked Michigan State is the underdog.
Pick: Michigan State Moneyline (+116 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
