Week 9 of the NFL season closes with the Minnesota Vikings and the Buffalo Bills at opposite ends of the spectrum on offense and defense. The Vikings have an elite defense, holding teams to just 13.3 points per game, but their offense ranks 27th, averaging 20 points per game. Conversely, the Bills lead the NFL in scoring with 33.3 points per game but allow 25.9, ranking 24th. This is a true battle of offense versus defense. Here are our best NFL Monday Night Football picks for this matchup.
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NFL Monday Night Football Picks & Predictions: Bills vs. Vikings
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Buffalo Bills -3.5 (-102)
The hook (the extra 0.5) worries me a bit, but I’ll lean toward the Bills. The Vikings’ offense put up only 15 points against a Detroit Lions defense that allows 25.7 points per game and nearly 300 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Now, yes, the Bills’ defense hasn’t been great, allowing 29+ points in three of their last four games, but it’s hard to trust this Vikings defense right now. Sure, they held the Baltimore Ravens to 10 points, but that was mostly with undrafted rookie free agent Joe Fagnano under center.
The Bills’ defense primarily plays Cover 3 and Cover 4.
Against both coverages, Kyler Murray has completed 68.9% of his passes, which is great, but he has averaged 6.6 yards per attempt and has one touchdown pass and one interception.
I don’t think this Vikings offense has enough juice to keep up in a game where, yes, the Vikings’ defense will slow the Bills a bit, but 21-24 points from the Bills gets them the win and the cover.
I’ll side with the superior offense here.
Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-125)
The Vikings haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown to an opposing quarterback this season, but Josh Allen is unlike any other quarterback in this regard.
This season, Allen has nine rushing touchdowns. He’s scored a rushing touchdown in all but one game. Given how often Allen has scored on the ground, I’m leaning on him here, even at -125.
T.J. Hockenson 42+ Receiving Yards (-110)
Through seven games, T.J. Hockenson has a 20.4% target share, second on the Vikings behind Justin Jefferson’s 22.1%. He’s caught 31 passes for 295 tards and three touchdowns.
Hockenson now faces a Bills defense that’s been torched by tight ends this season. The Bills allow an average of six receptions for 70.5 yards per game to opposing tight ends. So far, five tight ends have caught 42+ yards against the Bills.
In a game where the Bills have a beatable defense, have allowed a lot of production to tight ends and Hockenson has a target share above 20%, 42 yards should be plenty doable.
