College Football Week 11 Picks: Best Early Bets (2026)

College football upsets continue to alter the landscape of the College Football Playoff heading into Week 11. Notable top-ranked teams to lose include No. 1 Miami, No. 12 Ohio State, No. 6 Kentucky, and No. 9 BYU.

Week 11 has a few entertaining games on tap, including Missouri vs. No. 1 Georgia, No. 15 USC vs. No. 6 Indiana, No. 2 Utah vs. No. 22 Arizona, and No. 8 Texas vs. No. 24 LSU. Every win and loss gains importance at this stage of the season, especially in the final year of the 12-team CFP.

We’re coming off a profitable 2-1 result with my College Football Week 10 Picks: Best Early Bets (2026). Utah -5.5 cashed after the Utes’ 28-20 comeback win over BYU, while Alabama’s 31-13 rout of LSU easily hit Alabama +5.5. Kentucky’s 34-6 loss to Tennessee was the lone loss, with the Wildcats failing to cover +6.5.

I’ve taken a look at early line movement in primary betting markets for several of the biggest Week 11 matchups. There are three bets I really like at their current price, and I’ll explain why you should lock these in before the number inevitably changes later in the week.

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College Football Week 11 Best Bets & Early Line Movement Predictions

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

USC (15) vs. Indiana (6)

USC is climbing up the AP rankings following its win over Ohio State. Coming out of a bye week, the Trojans head to Bloomington to take on No. 6 Indiana with momentum.

The Hoosiers needed a 60-yard field goal to wind up beating unranked Minnesota 23-16 in overtime during their last game. QB Josh Hoover has looked pedestrian for big stretches of his tenure in Indiana’s offense.

Indiana has moved from -7.0 to -7.5 in early point spread betting markets. We’re now through a key number, with the Hoosiers laying more than a touchdown at home.

USC has sneakily improved its defense. The Trojans have not allowed more than 1 passing touchdown in 3 straight appearances, while holding the Buckeyes out of the end zone on the ground.

USC QB Jayden Maiava plays in one of the best offenses in the country under head coach Lincoln Riley. He’s thrown for over 2,500 yards and 20 touchdowns, with support from his run game, getting 4.7 YPC between his top two running backs.

Indiana’s defense is stout, but they’ll be tested against a quarterback of Maiava’s talent and experience. Let’s grab a full touchdown and bet on USC +7.5.

Pick: USC +7.5 (-115)

Utah (2) vs. Arizona (22)

Utah is one of only two undefeated teams in the country heading into a road tilt against a tough Arizona Wildcats program. QB Devon Dampier was dominant against BYU in Week 10, finishing with 4 total touchdowns, including 2 rushing touchdowns on 21 carries for 116 yards.

Dampier’s dual-threat ability is enough to keep defenders off schedule. He’s facing an Arizona defense ranked inside the top-30 for points allowed (19.9).  However, the Wildcats have surrendered over 60 points in their previous two contests.

Utah’s defense is no pushover. Arizona has to overcome a Utes’ defense allowing a stingy 51 percent completion rate and 1 passing touchdown in 3 straight outings, including 4 interceptions logged against BYU.

Oddsmakers expect a potential upset in Tucson with Utah only -2.5. However, I’m confident in Dampier and Utah’s defense to get the job done.

Let’s follow the steam, moving from Utah -1.5 to -2.5. Bet on Utah -2.5 at -110 odds

Pick: Utah -2.5 (-110)

Texas (8) vs. LSU (24)

Arch Manning and the Longhorns played well during their second road game of the season in Week 10. Texas outscored Missouri 14-0 in the final 5:30 of the 4th quarter to break a tie, and now, they head to Baton Rouge to take on a desperate LSU team.

The Tigers just got blown out by Alabama, suffering their first home loss under head coach Lane Kiffin. QB Sam Leavitt needs to play better if LSU wants to avoid sliding outside of the AP Top 25, facing a stout Texas defense ranked inside the top-20 in points allowed.

LSU has a great run defense, so this game is going to boil down to quarterback play between Manning and Leavitt. I give the edge to Texas, getting +4.0 against an LSU defense that just gave up 3 touchdowns to Alabama QB Keelon Russell. Manning has thrown for 3 touchdowns in 3 of his past 5 outings.

Early line movement shows Texas moving from +5.5 to +4.5. Let’s follow this steam and bet on the more clutch quarterback to come through in this matchup.

Place one final wager on Texas +4.5 on the road at LSU to close out our Week 11 early best bets.

Pick: Texas +4.5 (-112)