The season has been a difficult start for heavy underdogs in the NBA. There have been a ton of blowouts and less competitive games. Maybe that’ll change this week. Here are some market-based +EV NBA picks for tonight’s NBA slate.
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Monday’s Best +EV NBA Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated)
Coby White Over 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-125 at Hard Rock)
- Fair Value: -215
- Market EV: +23%
Coby White has missed this line in four straight games, adding no more than 11 points + rebounds + assists in all four. However, with Brandon Miller and Dennis Schroder out tonight, White should get more minutes and make more plays. When he played 26 minutes against Miami last season, he added 27 points, rebounds, and assists.
Lately, he’s played only about 17 minutes a night since coming back from injury. He’ll likely ramp it up more tonight.
That’s why his fair value is -215, and the market EV is 23% on this one. That’s a huge play. It looks like Hard Rock isn’t accounting for what these other sportsbooks are.
Paul Reed Under 9.5 Rebounds (-134 at Underdog)
- Fair Value: -178
- Market EV: +12%
Paul Reed had ten rebounds in his last game against the Lakers. However, he’s missed this number in four of his last five games, even with Jalen Duren out. In the last five games, Reed has earned fewer than 11 rebound chances and has added just six rebounds per game during that stretch. He’s still averaging 29.3 minutes over the last five games, which is up because Duren’s injured.
That still hasn’t helped Reed get to ten rebounds consistently.
At Underdog, you’ll find Reed at Under 9.5 rebounds at -134. That’s a play you’ll want to add to your betting slip.
Royce O’Neale Under 8.5 Points (+125 at NoVig)
- Fair Value: +125
- Market EV: +11%
Royce O’Neale is on the Charlotte Hornets and has hit this line in just 10% of games this season. In fact, he scored eight points against the Celtics last time out, after taking six shots in 26 minutes.
He’ll face a Cavaliers team that ranks 17th in points allowed to small forwards. Last time out, Cleveland held Mikel Bridges to nine points on 9.5. In the prior game, the Cavaliers held Jaylen Brown to 20 points on 20.5. Ultimately, Cleveland has shut down its last four of five small forwards with their point totals.
Bridges has his under sitting at +125 via NoVig. Let’s pick that wager up. It’s +125, giving this play an 11% edge.
