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NFL Prop Bets: Week 1 (2019)

by September 7, 2019

Week 1 of the season is finally here and there is no better way to celebrate than with some NFL prop bets. These wagers provide us with an opportunity to get down on a game when a side or total isn’t jumping out or if there is a nationally televised game that needs an extra layer of excitement. These four bets should not only add intrigue to your viewing experience but provide value and hopefully increase your bankroll.

All lines are courtesy Draftkings Sportsbook.

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Most TD Passes – Deshaun Watson (+130) v Drew Brees (-162)

Obviously Drew Brees is a stud and tends to play better at home, but give me Deshaun Watson to throw more touchdown passes in Week 1. This game will feature plenty of scoring as it boasts the highest total of the week at 52.5. I expect the Saints to score plenty, but with Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray at running back, I could easily see a few rushing touchdowns for the Saints. Watson, on the other hand, will be required to do more for his team to produce points and has plenty of weapons to utilize.

Not only does he have arguably the best wide receiver in the league in DeAndre Hopkins, but this offense features two explosive-play wide receivers in Will Fuller and Kenny Stills. Either guy can easily take the top off the defense and find the end zone on Monday night. The absence of Lamar Miller should help Watson also as Duke Johnson is a running back that excels in the passing game. Give me the road quarterback and that value!

Player to score 2+ TDs – Darren Waller (16/1)

Want to get real loose on the late game this Monday? Let’s look at Darren Waller to score two or more touchdowns. Even with the circus surrounding Antonio Brown, who may or may not see the field, I like Waller to have a big game on Monday night. He is an athletic move tight end that will not only be a red zone threat but a big-play weapon as well.

Waller will face a Broncos’ defense is notoriously bad against opposing tight ends as they funnel targets to the middle of the field because of stellar defensive back play and a stout defensive line.

The Raiders are playing at home in what should be wild atmosphere. They are currently underdogs at home and will need to put up points if they want to win this game. Let’s take a shot on Waller at 16/1.

Derek Carr is also plus +115 to go over on 1.5 TDs in this game which seems like free money with Waller, Tyrell Williams, and other upside pass catchers. Feels like a wager that should hit more often than not.

Player to Score and Team to Win – Miles Sanders (+180)

I’m all aboard the Miles Sanders hype train this season. This rookie is very legit and has a chance to make a huge impact in this high-powered offense. For this prop, Sanders has to find the end zone and the Eagles have to win. Philadelphia is currently a 10-point home favorite and should win with ease. They will almost assuredly be one of if not the most popular eliminator pick in Week 1.

With the win feeling pretty safe, the focus turns to Sanders finding the end zone. I expect Sanders to get work, even if it means second-half work, in a blowout affair. I expect the rookie get plenty of chances to find the end zone in this game. At almost 2/1 it feels like good value.

If you’re as confident on the Eagles as I am Zach Ertz (+125) and DeSean Jackson(+250) also seem like solid options at reasonable prices.

Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers – Over 5.5 TDs (-105)

This game is one of the three whose total is currently 50 or more. While the slight majority of the money (53%) is on the under a much larger percentage (66%) of the tickets are on the under. This means the smart money is coming in on the over.

Both of these offenses featured dynamic playmakers on offense, impact defenders, and special teams weapons that can find the end zone. I expect plenty of touchdown celebrations in this game that should go over the total. Over 5.5 touchdowns feels like a wise wager especially at -105.

If you feel like getting a bit riskier, over 6.5 TDs (+205) is paying out at better than 2/1. This game should provide plenty of fireworks and fantasy production. Get your popcorn ready!

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Kyle Robert is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Kyle, check out his archive and follow him @NotoriousKRO.