Week 11 of the NFL season is here, and we have another international game. The Miami Dolphins and Washington Commanders are squaring off in Madrid, Spain. The Dolphins are fresh off a win over the Buffalo Bills, and the Commanders are coming off a 22-point loss to the Detroit Lions.
Below is a three-leg NFL same-game parlay (SGP) for this matchup, including a spread pick and two props. Let’s check it out.
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NFL Week 11 Same Game Parlay: Commanders vs. Dolphins
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated
- Leg 1: Dolphins Moneyline (-155)
- Leg 2: De’Von Achane Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-175)
- Leg 3: Jaylin Lane Under 2.5 Receptions (-180)
Leg #1: Dolphins Moneyline (-155)
While the Dolphins have been a running joke this season, they’ve actually been playing better lately. Over their last three games, they’re holding teams to 309 total yards (19th), 94 rushing yards (23rd), 215 passing yards (13th) and 17 points (26th) per game.
International games can always be a bit wonky with the travel, time difference and who’s been there longer. However, this Commanders team is just incredibly beat up from Jayden Daniels being out indefinitely, to players like Trey Amos, Ben Sinnott, Treylon Burks, Terry McLaurin and Will Harris already ruled out.
The Dolphins are riding high right now, winning two of their last three games against the Atlanta Falcons and the Bills.
This will be a close game, but I think the Dolphins have a good chance of coming out on top.
Leg #2: De’Von Achane Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-175)
Heading into Week 11, De’Von Achane has received 71.5% of the Dolphins’ running back carries, and without Tyreek Hill on the field, he’s received a 21.4% target share, which is second on the team behind Jaylen Waddle at 23.8%.
The Commanders are allowing 107.6 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs (eighth) and 36.3 receiving yards per game (eighth) to the position. They’ve also allowed at least one touchdown to the position in four of the last five weeks. Achane is going to continue to get 20+touches and will find the end zone.
Leg #3: Jaylin Lane Under 2.5 Receptions (-180)
For the last leg of this parlay, I’m taking the under on Jaylin Lane’s receptions. In scenarios where Terry McLaurin isn’t on the field and Marcus Mariota is, Lane has received just eight targets, which is only good enough for a 10.3% target share.
In a blowout loss to the Lions last week, which provided a perfect game script for Lane to receive potentially more looks since they were trailing throughout the game, he caught just one pass for 41 yards. While he had just the one catch, what’s even more damning is that he had just one target.
In the other games Mariota has started, which include games against the Chiefs, Falcons and Raiders, he’s never had more than two receptions. Additionally, the Dolphins are allowing just 9.8 receptions per game to wide receivers, which is 27th in the NFL.
Parlay Odds: +272
