It’s been seven of eight weeks with profits from our NFL Thursday Night Football TD scorers picks, which we capitalized on with Bhayshul Tuten’s +120 anytime touchdown odds last week. We narrowly missed a huge payday when we tipped Parker Washington to be the game’s first touchdown scorer at +650 odds, and he ended up scoring the game’s second touchdown.
This week’s Commanders-Giants game has a much lower projected total (41.5) than most on the Week 10 slate, even though these two teams combined for 54 points in a 27-27 Week 5 tie. Nevertheless, I’ve identified two great value plays from a first touchdown and anytime touchdown scorer perspective to try to extend our run of profits once again.
Here are the best touchdown scorer picks for Week 10’s Thursday Night Football contest between the Commanders and Giants.
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NFL Thursday Night Football TD Scorers Picks: Jaguars vs. Ravens
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Malik Nabers First Touchdown Scorer (+850)
It’s a toss-up which team will score the game’s first touchdown, as the Giants have scored first in three of their first seven games, while the Commanders scored first in two of their seven. With the Giants as home favorites in this matchup, I’m banking on one of their players to cross the goal line first.
Running back Cam Skattebo is back and healthy and has the shortest odds to be the game’s first touchdown scorer (+600). But the Giants are coming off an effort where their lead back (Devin Singletary) ran for just 31 yards on 21 carries. With the team averaging 2.6 yards per carry last week, I expect New York to move the ball through the air more.
Many will be down on New York’s vertical passing game with J.J. McCarthy under center. But he averaged the third-most air yards per attempt just two weeks ago, going 7-of-12 for 196 yards on passes of 10+ yards against the Texans. Just don’t expect much run after the catch from Nabers, as the Giants entered last week with the lowest percentage of receiving yardage being gained after the catch.
Rachaad White Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+160)
New York has the league’s third-best pass defense (177.8 yards per game) and has allowed just one quarterback to throw for 200+ yards this season. Even though Jayden Daniels was one yard away in their Week 5 matchup from being the second to eclipse 200 against New York, the Commanders’ 202 yards and 6.7 yards per carry in that game have me looking to their backfield for anytime touchdown value.
Washington scored three rushing touchdowns in the first matchup, two from Jayden Daniels himself. Rachaad White saw just seven of the team’s 30 carries in that game. But he hasn’t had fewer than that in any game this season, and his versatility out of the backfield with 30+ receiving yards in two of the last three weeks is enticing.
White has scored a touchdown in two of the last three weeks. And though he didn’t score last week, he turned his nine touches into 69 total yards and had a higher snap share (53%) than Austin Ekeler (48%). I am banking on his role growing further on a short week, especially against a Giants defense that entered last week ranked in the top 10 in highest opponents’ rush percentage faced.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.s