Last week, the Thursday Night Football game had the highest total of any game in Week 2. An offensive showdown between the Chargers and Chiefs saw five touchdowns scored, including scores from both of my Any Time TD bets. This week, the touchdowns may be a bit harder to come by. The Browns and Steelers' Week 3 TNF game has the lowest total on the board, sitting at 38.5 points. While these two teams aren't expected to put up quite the fireworks we saw last week, there's still plenty of value to be had on TD props in Thursday's game.
Below are two First TD bets and two Any Time TD bets that I'm all over, even in a game that may be a defensive struggle.
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NFL Week 3 Thursday Night Football Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets (Steelers vs. Browns)
Nick Chubb First TD Scorer (+500)
Chubb has the shortest odds of any player in this game, and for good reason – the Browns force-feed him the ball early in games. While Cleveland has a legit two-back system with Chubb and Kareem Hunt, Chubb has 13 first quarter rushing attempts to Hunt's one. Chubb actually has more rush attempts in the first quarter than the Browns receivers have targets in the first quarter combined (12). And one of these rush attempts was a 4-yard TD run – the first TD scored in last week's game against the Jets.
The Browns have been methodical and conservative in the first quarter this season. They've run 34 first quarter plays, and 32 have been either a run or a short pass. If the Browns are going to score early, it's likely to come on a long drive and come from a short distance. It won't surprise me at all if that score comes on a run play, and Chubb has commanded a majority of the team's touches in the first quarter. +500 may be the shortest odds of the game, but it's exceptional value even so.
Pat Freiermuth First TD Scorer (+1400)
Given Pat Freiermuth's usage, this price for First TD scorer feels like a steal. The Steelers, similarly to Cleveland, have called mostly short passes and runs in the first quarter. They've thrown nine short passes, and over half of these (5) have gone Feriermuth's way. Freiermuth has six first quarter targets on the season – the rest of the Steelers' offensive players have combined for six first quarter targets on the year. It's clear that as Trubisky tries to establish an early-game rhythm, he looks for his reliable TE on short patterns.
Due to Pittsburgh's conservative first quarter play calling, their first TD will likely come on a short play after a long drive, similar to the Browns. Freiermuth not only leads the team in first quarter targets, but he only has one fewer first quarter touch than star Steelers RB Najee Harris (+750 First TD). Betting on Freiermuth to score the first TD is betting on Pittsburgh to keep doing what they've been doing on offense, and at an excellent price.
I won't do a full write-up on Freiermuth's Any Time TD prop (+330), but for similar reasons, I love this play as well.
David Njoku Anytime TD (+470)
Despite being a trendy fantasy sleeper coming into the season, Njoku's first couple weeks have fallen flat. Njoku has caught4-of-6 targets for 39 yards and zero TDs. Njoku's 11% target share has left plenty to be desired as Jacoby Brissett has been more inclined to look to WRs Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones. Even backup TE Harrison Bryant has more targets than Njoku (8).
Even still, the +470 price tag here is a great value. All of Njoku's targets have been short passes, and three of his four catches have more yards after catch than air yards. Njoku is getting open, getting the ball, and outrunning defenders, even on a small sample size. Two of Njoku's targets have come in the red zone, with one coming at the Jets' 4-yard line last week and falling incomplete. Njoku fits the profile of a player who should convert a high percentage of their targets into TDs.
Jacoby Brissett has nine red zone pass attempts this season, and six have gone to the end zone. I expect him to look Njoku's way when he needs a TD on a tight field. The price on Njoku's TD prop is enough for me to bet on that scenario playing out.
Diontae Johnson Anytime TD (+230)
Pat Freiermuth's Any Time TD prop is a great value, but if you're looking to diversify your plays Diontae Johnson is a great bet at this price to get in the end zone.
Johnson has a 32% target share – the next highest target share on the team is Freiermuth with 24%. Despite Freiermuth thriving in the short game, Johnson is still who Trubisky looks for when he needs a big play. These targets haven't yet resulted in a TD, but Johnson's 8 TDs in 2021 are a solid tally – I'd expect him to pick up his first of 2022 soon.
The most enticing reason to bet on Johnson to score is the looks he's gotten on deep balls this season. On 16 Steelers deep throws so far this year, Johnson has 7 targets, good for a 44% target share (albeit on a small sample size). He hasn't done a huge amount of damage on these targets, pulling down two catches for 42 yards, but I'd expect him to get a couple of deep shots his way this year.
On the other hand, the deep ball has shredded the Browns this year. On 10 deep pass attempts in 2022, the Browns’ defense has allowed five catches for 239 yards and two TDs. In what will likely be a low-scoring game, the Steelers will have a couple of deep shots in their back pocket when they need a play most. I expect Johnson to be on the receiving end of these plays, and he'll have enough good looks to have a shot at scoring.
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