Someone must score the first touchdown of the game, and this article will help you increase your odds of hitting on that player based on matchups and team strengths. It features the best selections for the Sunday slate.
I will track my plays here on BettingPros. Let's get to the NFL Week 4 First TD scorers picks and predictions.
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NFL Week 4 First Touchdown Scorers Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise noted)
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Eagles are one of the better teams in the league, scoring seven points per game in the first quarter, which is tied for fifth. The Buccaneers allow 6.7 points per first quarter, and they struggle against running backs. They only allow 84 rushing yards per game, 52 to running backs, but they allow 71.3 receiving yards to the position.
The Eagles should get Saquon Barkley the ball early and often, and he could have more receptions this week. He is a stellar play to score first this week.
Pick: Saquon Barkley (+480 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Washington Commanders @ Atlanta Falcons
These teams are similar in terms of metrics in the first quarter, but Washington is clearly worse at defending passing plays. Atlanta allows the fewest passing yards per game (131), while Washington allows 229 passing yards per game. The Commanders are adept at defending the run, allowing 100.7 rushing yards per game; however, they have not yet played against Bijan Robinson.
Robinson is averaging 5.1 yards per rush attempt and 11.7 yards per reception this season. He should get a lot of opportunities, especially in the passing game with a struggling Michael Penix Jr. Expect a lot of short dump downs and designed plays for Robinson, which makes him a solid option to score first.
Pick: Bijan Robinson (+390)
Los Angeles Chargers @ New York Giants
The Giants' defense is struggling mightily through three games. They are allowing 405.3 total yards per game, which is second-most in the league. They also allow 27.7 points per game, but have held up well in the first quarter, only allowing 3.3 first-quarter points per game.
The Chargers average 6.7 points per first quarter, and Justin Herbert has them in a groove as he leads the league with 860 passing yards. Omarion Hampton is the obvious pick to score first, but Keenan Allen's value is too good to pass up. He is only +750 on FanDuel Sportsbook and +950 on DraftKings Sportsbook. His usage in the red zone also helps his case. Allen has three catches on six targets, all for touchdowns.
Pick: Keenan Allen (+950)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Francisco 49ers
The Jaguars and 49ers are both in the top five of points allowed per game. Jacksonville only allows 17 per game, while San Francisco allows 16.3. The 49ers have not allowed a point in the first quarter, but the Jaguars score 5.7 points per first quarter. Something has got to give.
The 49ers allow 103.7 rushing yards per game, 79.3 to the running back position. They also allow the third-highest success rate with zone runs, which accounts for over half of Travis Etienne's rushes. Etienne has 11 rushing attempts and two targets in the red zone this season and is always a threat to break a long run.
Pick: Travis Etienne Jr. (+750)
Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs
Mark Andrews emerged as a top target for Lamar Jackson last week against Detroit. He only had two catches on four targets for seven yards through the first two games, but caught all six targets for 91 yards and two touchdowns in Week 3. He could have another good game this week against the Chiefs.
The Chiefs have good metrics against tight ends, but do not let that fool you. They have faced the second-fewest targets to tight ends this season, but have allowed the fourth-highest yards per reception (12.75) to the position. Three of Andrews' 10 targets this season have come in the red zone, but he has only caught one for a touchdown. Andrews should play a massive role in this game and has good value to score first.
Pick: Mark Andrews (+1400)
