The 2025 NFL season rolls on with a full Week 4 slate. After the Seahawks and Cardinals kicked things off on Thursday, it's time to get ready for the rest of the week's NFL action. Tracking how much betting lines move during an NFL week can provide useful information to us bettors. As sportsbooks collect more information and public or sharp money flows in, lines take more shape.
Each game will have its reasoning for movement (e.g., injuries, betting activity, weather, etc.) and varying degrees of impact on the line. Let's take a look at how the spreads and totals have moved for every remaining NFL game this week.
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NFL Week 4 Line Movement Analysis
The table below summarizes the home team spread and game total movement for this week’s NFL games. Below, we’ll break down some of the more significant line movements.
| Home Spread | Total | ||||||
| Away | Home | Open | Current | Diff | Open | Current | Diff |
| MIN | PIT | -2 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 40.5 | 40.5 | - |
| WSH | ATL | 3 | 1.5 | -1.5 | 45.5 | 45.5 | - |
| CAR | NE | -4.5 | -5.5 | -1 | 43.5 | 42.5 | -1 |
| NO | BUF | -14.5 | -15.5 | -1 | 48.5 | 47.5 | -1 |
| LAC | NYG | 5.5 | 6 | 0.5 | 45.5 | 43.5 | -2 |
| PHI | TB | 3 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 46 | 43.5 | -2.5 |
| TEN | HOU | -7.5 | -7 | 0.5 | 38.5 | 38.5 | - |
| CLE | DET | -9.5 | -10 | -0.5 | 46.5 | 44.5 | -2 |
| JAC | SF | -4.5 | -3.5 | 1 | 45.5 | 47.5 | 2 |
| IND | LAR | -4 | -3.5 | 0.5 | 47 | 49.5 | 2.5 |
| BAL | KC | 2.5 | 2.5 | - | 48.5 | 48.5 | - |
| CHI | LVR | 1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 46.5 | 47.5 | 1 |
| GB | DAL | 5.5 | 7 | 1.5 | 48.5 | 47.5 | -1 |
| NYJ | MIA | -2.5 | -2.5 | - | 44.5 | 45.5 | 1 |
| CIN | DEN | -7.5 | -7.5 | - | 44.5 | 44.5 | - |
(Lines per DraftKings Sportsbook | Line movement via EV Analytics | Opening odds from 9/21 | Current odds as of Thursday evening)
Minnesota Vikings vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
- Spread Movement: PIT -2 to MIN -2.5
The Week 4 Sunday slate kicks off from Dublin, Ireland, with the Vikings taking on the Steelers. We've seen this spread flip entirely in Minnesota's favor as the public and sharp money back the NFC squad in this international matchup. The Vikings might be three-point favorites by kickoff after being two-point underdogs at the open.
Minnesota is coming off a 48-10 shellacking of the Bengals last week, despite missing J.J. McCarthy. Meanwhile, the Steelers earned a 21-14 road victory over New England to move to 2-1 on the year.
We have some interesting against-the-spread (ATS) trends at play here, specifically from the overseas angle. Betting favorites are 32-18 ATS in NFL international games. Aaron Rodgers has started two of those, and he's lost both straight up and ATS. Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell, on the other hand, is 2-0 SU/ATS in his pair of international contests.
Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams
- Total Movement: 47 to 49.5
Just as everyone predicted, the Colts' offense looks unstoppable. They're averaging 34.3 points per game (3rd in NFL) and 418.7 total yards per contest (2nd). Indianapolis has punted only once in three games, with Daniel Jones operating the attack like Peyton Manning. The Colts' offensive success has likely contributed to this week's rising total.
On the other side, the Rams return home after blowing a lead in Philadelphia. The offense was clicking early on, though, with 26 points in the first half and change, before things went silent. The defense, meanwhile, fell apart in the second half. Los Angeles still ranks 5th in total yards per game this year, and the offense should have success back at home indoors this week.
Jacksonville Jaguars at San Francisco 49ers
- Total Movement: 45.5 to 47.5
The game total in this matchup has notably increased because of two key injuries. You guessed it, they both involve the 49ers as they host the Jaguars. The total rise suggests this could be a higher-scoring game than originally projected.
San Francisco was dealt yet another major injury blow this week. Star defensive end Nick Bosa is now out for the season after tearing his ACL. This obviously downgrades the 49ers' defense, and Bosa's absence could loom large against the Jaguars' pass-happy offense under head coach Liam Coen.
On the bright side, the 49ers could get Brock Purdy back from injury for this home matchup against Jacksonville. It looked like Purdy had a chance to play last week, but he was ultimately scratched. He’s reportedly taken first-team reps in practice, which is an encouraging sign. His return would boost a San Fran offense that scored just 16 points in Week 3.
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Total Movement: 46 to 43.5
Arguably, the best game in Week 4 is this matchup of two 3-0 teams. The Eagles visit the Buccaneers with NFC bragging rights on the line. The result of this game could carry some weight in terms of playoff seeding. With that in mind, maybe the oddsmakers are expecting a defensive battle?
The Eagles pulled off an impressive comeback win over the Rams last week. However, the Philly offense looked lifeless in the first half before seemingly flipping a switch. This Eagles attack has been up and down through the first three weeks and could struggle to get into a rhythm again on the road here.
Meanwhile, the Buccaneers' offense gets a significant downgrade with Mike Evans out now. It leaves Emeka Egbuka and Bucky Irving as the only true playmakers left for Baker Mayfield to work with. The Philly defense has been shaky at times this season, but it also just held the Rams scoreless for the final 29 minutes of the second half last week.
