I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Steelers vs. Colts.
NFL Betting Primer: Steelers vs. Colts
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Colts are 5-1 toward the over this season at home. But each of the Steelers’ last six road games has gone UNDER the total points line. Nine of the Steelers' last 11 games have gone UNDER the total points line. 10-3 under MACHINES overall.
It's truly a battle of the stoppable force against the movable object between these two teams. As a result, I'll likely shy away from the total. If forced to choose, I'd bet the over with the Colts dictating the pace and game flow.
The Colts have been one of the few "over" machines this season, boasting an impressive 9-4 record toward the over. They pushed the "under king" Titans to an over 2 weeks ago. Don't think for a second, that they can't push the Steelers (who went over last week) into another game that goes OVER the projected total.
Even so, much prefer just backing the Colts straight up.
The Colts have won four of their last 5 games. And they are 100% ATS as favorites. 4-0 straight up and ATS as favorites in 2023. I was on the Colts last week but didn't readjust after they became underdogs throughout the week. 8-4 overall ATS. 5-2 on the road.
The Steelers are 4-3 as an underdog this season and 57% ATS as an underdog. And usually, they take care of bad teams. That has not been the case over the last 2 weeks, and the Colts boast a 7-6 record. Indianapolis isn't a "bad" team.
The Steelers will also have their hands full defensively if T.J. Watt can't play. He has a concussion and after he played with said concussion last week, hard to imagine the league will give him the green light to play in this spot. As one of the most impactful defensive players, his absence is a major boost for Indy's offense. The Steelers overall are dealing with a plethora of injuries on the defensive side of the ball.
As for the Steelers WRs, it's a solid matchup on paper. But the QB situation hardly makes either Diontae Johnson or George Pickens safe bets for overs.
Johnson was a key target last Thursday night for Trubisky, receiving 7 targets (20% target share) and making 3 receptions for 57 yards, including a 25-yard touchdown in the first half. He also commanded 136 air yards - 49% air yard share. He scored twice in the last two games - both passes coming from Trubisky.
The target share was distributed across various receivers, with Johnson, Jaylen Warren and Pat Freiermuth being notable contributors. Freiermuth also had 7 targets (20% target share) and caught a 2-point conversion.
Pickens was targeted 6 times (17% target share), making 5 receptions for a total of 19 yards.
Freiermuth and Johnson were both on the field for 69% of the snaps. Freiermuth finally returned to the full-time role he had pre-injury, running a route on 83% of dropbacks. Top-tier usage that foreshadows stronger statical outputs and involvement down the stretch.
The Trubisky splits favoring Johnson over Pickens that I outlined last week came to fruition last week. You cannot play Pickens in fantasy football if Trubisky is the team's starting QB.
Johnson's targets with Trubisky games in 2022: 12, 10, 11, 8, 10, 7. Pickens in those same games: 3, 2, 7, 3, 5, 6.
The Colts are allowing the 8th fewest receptions per game to WRs this season. Back to the under on Pickens' 3.5 receptions prop. Gone under in 4 of 7 last games since Johnson returned to the lineup. And we all watched Trubsiky play QB last Thursday night. You shouldn’t have much confidence in his receivers to deliver.
For the Colts offense. Over on Josh Downs. The Steelers are horrible versus slot WRs. Another buy-low opportunity for the Colts' shifty slot receiver. Pittsburgh has allowed the 4th-most points per game to slot WRs compared to the 4th-fewest points per game to perimeter WRs.
Using the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet, you'll find that 9 of the last 10 most comparable WRs to Downs have gone OVER their projected receiving yards against the Steelers this season.
My Picks
- Colts -2.5
- Over 42
My Props
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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