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The Longshots: Monday’s Top Underdog Plays (8/16)

by August 16, 2021
Michael Conforto

Do you want to win a lot of money without risking much? Who doesn’t? That is the basis this Longshots article series is built on. Three or four times per week, we will find a considerable underdog or funky special line to toss a small wager on and then root like hell for the upset! We will play all “dog” parlays, big event specials, or perhaps literally throw darts at a dart league prop. But, regardless of the sport, the payouts will always be 10 to 1 (+1000) or better. Additionally, we will include one LEAN on a 4 to 1 (+400) or better line for your consideration.

Most importantly, you should never wager money you aren’t willing to lose. Knowing your bankroll limitations is doubly true when betting on the long odds we recommend in these articles. Most pros recommend that you formulate a 1 unit value for standard bets, so bets placed here will be smaller than that — think 0.1 unit increments. Meaning, if you typically wager $10 on a -110 line, you should drop $1 on these 10:1 or greater odds.

Without further adieu, here are today’s longshots.

Longshots YTD: 0-6-0 | -0.6 units

Lean YTD: 2-3-0 | +0.8 units

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The New York Mets are a dumpster fire right now. Their season is tail spinning out of control, injuries have left them shorthanded, and their lineup, even when healthy, has been subpar. They come off a sweep at the hands of the Los Angeles Dodgers, more specifically a 14-4 embarrassment on national TV, only to travel through the night across the country to face the San Francisco Giants tonight.

Amidst the freefall, one Metropolitan is white-hot: Michael Conforto. Conforto is eight for his last sixteen, raising his season average nearly twenty points since August 11. Now, the Mets’ right fielder brings his hot bat into a series with a team he has demolished since 2105. The Giants haven’t figured out Conforto. He is a lifetime .313 hitter, with six home runs and a .940 OPS vs. them. A Conforto home run PLUS a Mets win pays out +1200. With good history against San Francisco and a hot bat, he is our underdog play of the day!

Longshot Bet of the Day

Michael Conforto to hit a home run AND the Mets to WIN +1153

Lean

Michael Conforto to HIT a home run +550

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Aaron Pags is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Aaron, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyTriage.