The dog days of summer are upon us, but that's music to my ears as a baseball bettor. We have another full slate of games today, featuring wall-to-wall action that gets underway at 1:05 p.m. ET with a contest between the Phillies and the Yankees. I've sifted through the statistics and matchups and narrowed in on three MLB best bets today. Let's dive into the picks and analysis.
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Saturday's Best MLB Picks & Bets
(Odds courtesy of bet365)
Toronto Blue Jays (+155) vs. Detroit Tigers (-185) | O/U 7.0 (-115/-105)
Happy Tarik Skubal Day to all who celebrate. The Cy Young frontrunner (-300 consensus) takes the ball for the Tigers (60-45) this evening, and he'll be squaring off against a red-hot Blue Jays (62-42) team that has the best record in the Majors. Toronto opts for Kevin Gausman in this American League showdown, which gets underway at 6:10 p.m. ET from Comerica Park in Detroit, MI.
Six of Skubal's last 10 starts have gone under seven runs. That includes his most recent 6.2-inning effort against the Rangers, which the Tigers won 2-1. The southpaw comes into the weekend at 10-3, owning a 2.19 ERA (second) and a 0.81 WHIP (first). His 164 strikeouts are the second-most in the Majors. Additionally, the current Blue Jays roster is slashing only .235/.278/.324 against him over 34 at-bats.
As for Gausman (4.01 ERA), he'll be squaring off against a Detroit offense that's ice-cold at the moment. Over the last seven days, the Tigers are 30th in wOBA (.252) and 26th in ISO (.113). Their current roster is slashing just .229/.302/.292 against Gausman over 96 at-bats. That equates to a lowly OPS of .594 in the head-to-head department. I'm taking the under in Motown tonight.
Bet: Under 7.0 Runs (-105)
Chicago Cubs (-190) vs. Chicago White Sox (+160) | O/U 9.0 (-120/+100)
The White Sox (38-66) hammered the Cubs (60-43) 12-5 in last night's series opener of the Crosstown Classic. The rivals are back at it tonight, and we have a pitching matchup between Cade Horton and Aaron Civale. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET from Rate Field in Chicago, IL.
Over bettors have been printing money in the Cubs-Sox rivalry in recent years. In their last eight meetings, the over is 6-1-1 and we're seeing an average of 11.8 runs per game during the sample size. Tonight's clash features a pitching matchup between two starters with ERAs north of 4.00. Horton sits at 4.04, while Civale owns a 4.76 ERA.
Furthermore, the White Sox have been on fire offensively since the All-Star break. They're on a 6-1 run, averaging 8.7 runs per game. Over the last seven days, the Southsiders rank first in wOBA (.381) and third in ISO (.231). The Cubs are 10th (.332) and 13th (.179) in those respective categories. Let's take the over.
Bet: Over 9.0 Runs (-120)
Los Angeles Dodgers (+125) vs. Boston Red Sox (-150) | O/U 8.5 (-105/-115)
The Dodgers (61-43) took care of the Red Sox (55-50) in a 5-2 affair last night, and they'll turn to Clayton Kershaw as they try to keep things rolling. Garrett Crochet, who's second on the American League Cy Young Award betting board (+240 consensus), gets the nod for the Sox. First pitch is slated for 7:15 p.m. ET from Fenway Park in Boston, MA.
We're getting a betting total of 8.5 runs with arguably the best pitcher in Major League Baseball taking the mound tonight. I'm locking in the under. Crochet has been superb in his debut campaign with the Red Sox, going 11-4 with a 2.19 ERA (third) and a 1.06 WHIP (16th). His 165 punchouts lead the Majors. Boston also brings in a bullpen that's fourth in ERA (3.36) and seventh in opposing average against (.226).
Offensively, the Red Sox have been struggling mightily. Over the last seven days, they're 29th in wOBA (.260) and have the worst K strikeout rate (31.7%) in the Majors. They're tasked with facing Kershaw, who has looked solid this season with a 3.27 ERA. The left-hander owns a 2.61 ERA in his last two outings (10.1 innings). With a total of 8.5 runs, I love this under.
Bet: Under 8.5 Runs (-115)
