Today’s MLB slate is a small one with just nine games remaining, after the Twins-Marlins early-start time. Here are three of our top MLB picks & predictions for Thursday, July 3rd.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
New York Yankees (-132) at Toronto Blue Jays (+108) | O/U 8.5 (-104/-116)
There has not been a shortage of offense in this series, with 46 runs in the three games. Not surprising when you see what these two offenses bring. The Yankees are one of the top offenses in the league as they are fourth in runs per game, and they are doing it with their power as they're second in hard-hit rate. Toronto is finally bringing the offense. In their last nine games, they've scored at least five runs in seven and are sixth with a .275 average.
This pitching matchup could be an opportunity to see more runs. The Yankees’ Clarke Schmidt has struggled against this Blue Jays lineup with a .343 weighted on-base average, while Chris Bassitt has a 4.29 ERA this season.
Pick: Over 8.5 Runs (-104)
San Francisco Giants (-126) at Arizona Diamondbacks (+104) | O/U 8.5 (-108/-114)
The Giants have hit a rough patch as they are 5-12 in their last 17 games. This has pushed them out of contention in the National League West as they are now nine games out of first.
Robbie Ray has been one of the shining lights as he is putting up a potential Cy Young Award-worthy campaign with a 2.75 ERA and allowing 6.86 hits per nine innings. His game is to force you to hit weak fly balls, which we could see against Arizona.
The Diamondbacks are 13th in ground ball rate (41.9%), and the Giants could support Ray against Arizona's Brandon Pfaadt, whom they have a .472 xwOBA against.
Pick: Giants Moneyline (-126)
Milwaukee Brewers (+133) at New York Mets (-163) | O/U 8.5 (-103/-118)
It's been bad for the Mets, who have dropped 14 of their last 18 and let first place in the division slip away. They can't blame it on just one aspect because the pitching and hitting have both been awful. During this 18-game span, they are 27th in wOBA (.289) and last in ERA (6.24). David Peterson has not been immune to this below-average play, as he hasn't pitched out of the fifth in his last two starts before allowing five earned runs in each.
Walks have been Peterson’s biggest problem as he has allowed three walks in each of those starts. It will be a challenge for him facing this Brewers lineup, which is fifth in walk rate (9.3%) this season. Even with the Mets as large home favorites, it’s difficult to trust them, especially when you don’t have a starter you’re confident can keep you in the game.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline (+133)
