A small three-game slate awaits NBA bettors this evening. While some may turn their attention to the big-name stars on TNT, I’m focusing on a single player in the one other game on tonight’s card.
Here are my top NBA betting picks for Tuesday’s action.
Written Picks YTD: 53-45-0 (+15.42u)
Total Picks YTD: 69-72-0 (+15.41u)*
*Follow me @is_sirois for any other plays.
1. Dejounte Murray o18.5 Points | -105 (.75u) at FD Sportsbook
2. Dejounte Murray o1.5 Made Threes | +164 (.5u) at FD Sportsbook
Dejounte Murray is set up for a big game against the New York Knicks. Tom Thibodeau’s squad has struggled to defend opposing ones this year. That issue contributed, at least in part, to the veteran head coach’s decision to bench Kemba Walker. However, the numbers don’t suggest that the Knicks have improved since then. Trae Young scored 33 points against the Knicks without Kemba on November 27th, and James Harden went for 34 on the 30th. As a result, the Knicks rank as the worst defense against opposing point guards through the last seven games. Murray spends 95% of his minutes at the one for San Antonio, making him the beneficiary of New York’s defensive woes.
Although Murray failed to clear this number in either of his meetings with the Knicks last year, he came close, and he did so with DeMar DeRozan still the centerpiece of his offense. With the veteran gone, Murray faces a wide-open path to additional offensive production against New York. His number this season support that conclusion — Murray averaged 15.7 points per game last year but is averaging 19 this year. In fact, Murray has gone over this total in 12 of his 22 outings. That’s good for a 54.5% hit rate, which points to value against his implied odds (51.2%).
We’re also targeting Murray’s made threes here, albeit for a small size. Murray has hit at least a pair of triples in 10 of his 22 games this year, so the hit rate (45.4%) again speaks to value relative to the implied odds (38.2%). The point guard averaged 1.5 made threes per game against the Knicks last year, too. New York now ranks as one of the NBA’s worst perimeter defenses. They permit 13.5 made threes per game, the sixth-most, and 2.98 to point guards, the seventh-most. And while Murray isn’t known as a sharpshooter, he has hit at least two triples in his last three games.
3. Dejounte Murray Double-Double | -105 at FD Sportsbook
4. Dejounte Murray Triple-Double | +750 (.25u) at FD Sportsbook
Because we’re only targeting props for a single player on today’s slate, I advise that you split your units carefully. I’ve limited today’s recommended action to exactly 2.5 units, which is right around the maximum I feel comfortable spending on one player.
Murray has earned 12 double-doubles this year, and he has done so in his last seven games. He can either nab boards or dish out assists to do so; he has recorded double-digit assists six times and double-digit rebounds nine times. Murray also averages 8.5 assists and 8.5 rebounds per game. It should come as no surprise, then, that he has three triple-doubles thus far.
The Knicks make for an especially spicy target. Through their last seven games, they have permitted opposing point guards to nab 8.2 rebounds, the highest mark in the NBA, and they’ve allowed them to dish out 8.98 assists, the sixth-highest mark.
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