UFC 296 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Brandon Royval (2023)

A pair of belts are on the line this weekend as the UFC returns to the fight capital of the world, Las Vegas, Nevada. First, it's a Flyweight battle in the co-main event as Alexandre Pantoja looks to defend his title against (#2) Brandon Royval. The evening concludes with a Welterweight banger between (C) Leon Edwards and (#3) Colby Covington.

Below I'll break down the co-main event, providing a recent history and statistical bio of each fighter. I'll wrap up the piece by touching on the betting odds, along with letting you know how I'm betting this Flyweight brawl. Let's dive into the analysis and have a profitable Saturday in the cage!

UFC 296: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Brandon Royval Betting Guide

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Betting Profile: Alexandre Pantoja (26-5-0)

Last Five Fights: (WWWWL)

You have to go back to July 2020 to find the last time Alexandre Pantoja took a loss in the UFC octagon, where he dropped a contest to Askar Askarov (U-DEC). Since the defeat, the Brazilian has rattled off four straight victories, including a second-round Rear Naked Choke finish against Brandon Royval in August of 2021. The other wins came against Manel Kape (U-DEC), Alex Perez (SUB - Neck Crank), and Brandon Moreno (S-DEC) in a title fight. Pantoja was out-struck 147-129 in the five-round championship fight but won the takedown battle 6-2 while racking up a ground control edge (8:26 to 4:01).

The high volume of striking wasn't too surprising considering Pantoja is averaging 4.41 significant strikes per minute. He's also absorbing 3.81 significant strikes per minute. The Cannibal is active in the takedown department, landing 1.75 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 44% success rate. Pantoja also defends 66% of opposing attempts.

Betting Profile: Brandon Royval (15-6-0)

Last Five Fights: (WWWLL)

Brandon Royval only has two losses in his UFC career, where he has accumulated a record of 5-2. In his defense, losing to Brandon Moreno (KO - Punches) and Alexandre Pantoja aren't exactly letdown performances. Since the loss to Pantoja, Royval has taken care of business against Rogerio Bontorin (S-DEC), Matt Schnell (SUB - Guillotine Choke), and Matheus Nicolau (KO - Knee), most recently. The two recent finishes came in the first round, which means that 13 (5 KO, 8 SUB) of his 15 professional wins have come before the final horn.

"Raw Dawg" Royval has a decent output in terms of his striking, where he's landing 3.45 significant strikes per minute, compared to absorbing just 2.63 strikes. As for his grappling numbers, the American is landing 0.66 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 100% clip, while defending 39% of opposing attempts. He's a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and he uses those skills often considering he racks up 2.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

Bottom Line

Our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook list Alexandre Pantoja as a sizable -192 favorite to successfully defend his title for the first time. Brandon Royval comes back at +160 to win the rematch and secure his first UFC title.

In terms of picking a side, I lean toward Pantoja doing enough to win this rematch. He's the more well-rounded fighter, whereas Royval's a bit of a madman in the cage. However, instead of laying that type of juice with the Pantoja moneyline, I'll simply say that this fight ends in a submission. You can get the champ to win by submission at +120, but I'll leave it open-ended in case the challenger sticks a submission attempt.

It's not like that's flawed logic. Royval is a submission artist, seeing more than half (8) of his 15 professional wins coming via submission. He's throwing 2.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes. On the flip side, Pantoja is no stranger to tapping out the opposition either, where 10 of his 26 professional wins have come by submission. That includes the Rear Naked Choke in the first battle between these flyweights. Ultimately, we should be in for some intense grappling exchanges in the co-main event, and I think someone goes down via submission.

Bet: Exact Method of Victory: Submission (-115)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: