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UFC Fight Night Picks: Muhammad vs. Bonfim Predictions (2026)

UFC Fight Night Picks: Muhammad vs. Bonfim Predictions (2026)

The UFC took a week off to start June, but they are back this week with a fight card before UFC Freedom 250 on June 14. UFC Vegas 119 at the Meta APEX features a former welterweight champion against an up-and-coming prospect. Belal Muhammad is putting his number-five ranking on the line against Gabriel Bonfim, who is looking to break into the top 10. The card kicks off at 5 p.m. ET, with the main card beginning at 8 p.m. ET on Paramount+. Here are UFC Fight Night picks for Muhammad vs. Bonfim.

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UFC Fight Night Picks: Muhammad vs. Bonfim Bets (2026)

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Bruno Silva (-125) vs. Edgar Chairez (+105)

Bruno Silva and Edgar Chairez are squaring off on the prelims in the flyweight division. Silva is coming off a loss to Charles Johnson, his third loss in four fights. It is a deceiving record, however. He lost to Manel Kape by knockout in 2024 and to Joshua Van by knockout in 2025. Those are two of the top three flyweights in the world, and Charles Johnson barely beat him via split-decision. He is much better than it may seem.

Chairez has won two fights in a row and three of his last four. The lone loss since 2024 was to Van. He beat CJ Vergara and Felipe Bunes following that loss in 2025 and to open 2026, respectively. He did not look great in his last fight with Bunes, which he won via split decision.

Silva should have the wrestling advantage, and I expect him to enter the octagon with a solid game plan. Chairez only defends 38% of opponents' takedowns and relies on his jiu-jitsu on the mat. He has a slick guillotine, but that submission attempt leaves you on your back if it fails. Silva must remain smart when entering, but he can control Chairez on the mat.

The threat of wrestling should also help him overcome a six-inch reach disadvantage. Silva has quick hands and is accurate. Chairez has solid hands but relies heavily on spinning attacks. That should open takedowns for Silva, but I think Silva can also manage this fight on the feet.

Pick: Bruno Silva (-125)


Bryce Mitchell (-135) vs. Santiago Luna (+114)

Santiago Luna is entering this matchup on short notice after Victor Henry withdrew. He is facing Bryce Mitchell, a solid bantamweight. Mitchell started 5-0 in the UFC after winning The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeated. He lost to Ilia Topuria in 2022, which started a streak of wins and losses. He recently beat Said Nurmagomedov in July 2025.

Santiago Luna is 21 years old and has fought twice in the UFC. He beat Quang Le in 2025 and Angel Pacheco in February 2026. He has solid wrestling, which helps him in this matchup. Mitchell's skills rely on getting the fight to the mat to set up submissions. Mitchell clearly has the jiu-jitsu advantage in this fight, but Luna has the skills to negate it.

Luna is a much better striker. He is a pressure fighter and throws hard punches consistently. Mitchell has shown little striking improvement since entering the UFC, and Luna is a gifted striker. He lands 8.20 significant strikes and absorbs 3.82 significant strikes per minute. Luna can make a statement on this card and put himself on the map in the bantamweight division.

Pick: Santiago Luna (+114)


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