Skip to main content

2022 US Open Men’s Finals Odds, Picks & Predictions: Casper Ruud vs. Carlos Alcaraz

by September 11, 2022
US Open Mens Finals 2022 Odds Picks Predictions

Entering the 2022 U.S. Open, the futures odds favored a first-time winner at this event over a past winner, as oddsmakers saw the bevy of talent in the Men’s draw and figured it was likely they had better chances of success over Rafael Nadal, Daniil Medvedev, or Marin Cilic. Those who backed the first-time winner cashed their wagers as early as the quarterfinals, and now only No. 3 seed Carlos Alcaraz or No. 5 seed Casper Ruud will claim their first Grand Slam title.

That is not all that is on the line on Sunday, as the winner of the match will move to No. 1 in the world rankings. Thus, there is plenty of drama and intrigue as the future of men’s tennis is before us at Flushing Meadows.

Read on for our thoughts and predictions for the Men’s final at the 2022 U.S. Open.

Carlos Alcaraz’s Path to the Wimbledon Finals

d. S. Baez 7-5, 7-5, 2-0 (retired), d. F. Coria 6-2, 6-1, 7-5, d. J. Brooksby 6-3, 6-3, 6-3, d. M. Cilic 6-4, 3-6, 6-4, 4-6, 6-3, d. J. Sinner 6-3, 6-7, 6-7, 7-5, 6-3, d. F. Tiafoe 6-7, 6-3, 6-1, 6-7, 6-3

Casper Ruud’s Path to the Wimbledon Finals

d. K. Edmund 6-3, 7-5, 6-2, d. T. Van Rijthoven 6-7, 6-4, 6-4, 6-4, d. T. Paul 7-6, 6-7, 7-6, 5-7, 6-0, d. C. Moutet 6-1, 6-2, 6-7, 6-2, d. M. Berrettini 6-1, 6-4, 7-6, d. K. Khachanov 7-6, 6-2, 5-7, 6-2

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Casper Ruud Prediction

The biggest question to handicap entering this match is whether or not the grind of three consecutive five-set matches in five days will take its toll on the No. 3 seed Alcaraz. In particular, Alcaraz’s quarterfinal win over Sinner was the second-longest match ever at the U.S. Open and was the latest-ever finish (2:50 a.m.) in the event’s history. Oddsmakers think he can withstand the fatigue, as the 19-year-old is a big -230 moneyline favorite. But not only has Alcaraz played a lot of tennis this week, but his counterpart has also been getting off the court relatively quickly.

Alcaraz showed outstanding mental toughness on two occasions in his semifinal match against Tiafoe. First, Alcaraz lost a first-set tiebreak (Tiafoe set a record for going 8-0 in tiebreaks throughout the tournament) which was Tiafoe’s 16th set win in the previous 17, and the crowd was roaring for the American. However, Alcaraz rebounded quickly and also showed great resolve in overcoming a wasted match point opportunity in the fourth set.

In their lone head-to-head meeting earlier this year, Alcaraz beat Ruud 7-5, 6-4 in Miami. However, Ruud hung tough despite making only 59% of his first serves and 60% of his second serves, compared to Alcaraz’s 71% and 75% marks. Alcaraz will likely come to the net more in this match to preserve energy and not get into long baseline rallies, which would be wise considering he entered the match against Tiafoe having won 71% of his points at net in the 200+ times he approached earlier in the tournament.

However, Ruud is 13-2 in Grand Slams this year and appears to be the back story entering this match, given the world’s infatuation with the 19-year-old phenom. Alcaraz has played more than ten hours of tennis in his last two matches, forcing him to skip practice sessions and completely re-vamp his pre-match routines. That has to play into this match and close the gap on any perceived advantages Alcaraz has.

Thus, we are bucking the trend that the under has cashed in their two head-to-head matches, as this best-of-five match, the biggest of their careers, has much different circumstances.

Bet: Alcaraz-Ruud Over 38.5 Games (-145 at DraftKings)  

Bet $5 to win $200 in FREE bets at DraftKings Sportsbook >> 

Connect with sportsbooks to automatically sync your balances and bets >>

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced strategies — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.