This is the second of two articles featuring my favorite bets for NFL MVP. The first article explained why Tom Brady and Josh Allen are my favorite bets at the top of the market. Now, I’ve got two long-shots I like to make a run at the NFL Most Valuable Player Award.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Trey Lance (+4000)
This is a lay-up when it comes to picking long-shot bets. There are so many things to like about Trey Lance, which is why his MVP odds have moved a bit from the outrageous prices we saw earlier in the offseason. In recent years, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson have laid the blueprint for how this type of player can win an MVP award. Mahomes and Jackson were first-round quarterbacks who did not become full-time starters until their second season when they exploded onto the scene and became surprise MVP winners. Lance has that potential.
While he may not be the athlete Jackson is or the passer that Mahomes is, Lance’s ceiling is in line with those players. That’s why the 49ers traded a fortune to move up and select the North Dakota State quarterback. It was a bet on traits and the potential that Lance provides. Jimmy Garoppolo is no more than an average quarterback, but San Francisco has been one of the best offenses in the league and has had two deep playoff runs with him at the helm. Thanks to Kyle Shanahan’s scheme, an elite group of playmakers and one of the better offensive lines in the league, this is one of the best situations for a young quarterback. Drop I’m an athletic quarterback with an absolute cannon into this offense, and the sky is the limit.
We have no idea what Lance is with just two NFL games under his belt. That is why he’s +4000 to win this award. He’s a quarterback, his team is top 10 in Super Bowl odds and he can stuff the stat sheet with both his arm and legs while winning games. That’s why Lance is my favorite long-shot MVP bet.
Trevor Lawrence (+8000)
Trevor Lawrence, another second-year quarterback, is another one of my favorite bets for NFL MVP. Lawrence was regarded as one of the best quarterback prospects in decades and mentioned in the same breath as Peyton Manning when he entered the NFL draft in 2021. While his first season with the Jaguars was an absolute disaster, it wasn’t his fault. Urban Meyer had one of the worst stints as an NFL head coach ever. The absurdity of how last year’s Jaguars team was run put Lawrence in a situation to fail. There is nowhere to go but up for Lawrence and the Jags moving forward.
The hiring of Doug Pederson has given this team competence. The Jaguars spent heavily in free agency, overpaying to improve the roster around Lawrence. They had a lot of draft capital, which added young talent to the team. With Pederson taking over, an improved roster and a year of NFL experience for Lawrence, we could see him ascend to a level of play that he’s been expected to reach. Lawrence being considered a top-5 NFL quarterback is certainly not out of the range of outcomes. That would do wonders for this Jaguars team and make them a real threat to not only make the playoffs, but win the division and contend in the playoffs.
The Jaguars have competent coaching, an improved roster and play in the weakest division in the NFL. This sets up one of the best quarterback prospects ever to finally reach his potential and make a run to be the NFL’s most valuable player.
Matthew Freedman’s Best Bets After the 2022 NFL Draft >>
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