After hitting Manny Machado (+475) yesterday, we’re back with three more home run props for tonight’s MLB tw0-game slate. Let’s get right to it!
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Sunday's Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
Kyle Schwarber Home Run (+255)
The odds aren’t insane, but Kyle Schwarber has an insane matchup.
He’s facing Luis Severino, who has allowed a .292 ISO and wOBA of .455 to his last 53 lefties. Severino has also given up 25.6% of line drives and 28.2% of fly balls. Beyond that, he’s struck out only 17% of lefties in the last 30 days.
On the other hand, Schwarber has cracked a .294 ISO and wOBA of .404 against his last 61 righties. The powerful lefty has also hit 37.1% of fly balls and has launched 68.6% of hard contact with a team-best 28.6% barrel percentage against righties.
Schwarber hit one on the second pitch in yesterday’s game. He’s in line for another home run tonight.
Bryce Harper Home Run (+310)
Bryce Harper is another lefty who can take advantage of Severino’s struggles. Harper has smoked a .288 ISO and wOBA of .403 against his last 58 righties. He’s hit over 35% of fly balls and added 51.4% of hard contact with a 13.5% barrel percentage.
Like Schwarber, Harper strikes out above 25% of the time against righties. But again, Severino isn’t earning a high strikeout against lefties and hasn’t even notched 20% of strikeouts against lefties throughout the entire season.
Let’s also give Harper a try tonight.
Max Muncy Home Run (+290)
I’d get clowned if I picked Shohei Ohtani to hit a hit a home run at +170 odds. So I won’t, but I know he’s undoubtedly live to hit a home run tonight.
That said, Max Muncy is another lefty with power potential against Yu Darvish and the Padres. Muncy has hit a .167 ISO and wOBA of .379 against his last 58 righties. He’s also struck out only 13.8% of the time but has walked nearly 25% of the time.
Muncy is patient, which is good. He walks a lot, which isn’t good. A 3-1 count favors Muncy if Darvish makes a mistake. After all, Darvish has allowed a .257 ISO and wOBA of .311 to his last 40 lefties. He’s also struck them out only 20% of the time and has allowed a 14.8% barrel percentage to lefties.
Since returning to the diamond, Muncy can take advantage of Darvish’s early struggles against lefties.
