For the third time this week we have an LCS doubleheader on tap. Will the Los Angeles Dodgers sweep their way to another WS berth? Who has the edge in the pivotal ALCS Game 5 with the Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners deadlocked at two games apiece?
Read on for my top MLB picks & predictions for Friday, October 17th.
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Friday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Toronto Blue Jays (-112) at Seattle Mariners (-108) | O/U 7.0 (-112/-108)
Toronto’s offensive success from Game 3 is a big reason I am backing it with confidence to slug its way to a series lead in Game 5. In the 13-4 victory on Wednesday, the Blue Jays belted five home runs and set a franchise record for extra-base hits in a playoff game (nine). In the process, they tagged Mariners righty George Kirby for eight hits and a 4/2 K/BB ratio, after he entered that start with a 2.30 ERA and .581 opponents’ OPS in his previous five outings. Kirby also ranked first in strikeout-to-walk ratio (6.7) since the start of 2022 (min. 400 IP).
Perhaps we should not have been surprised by Toronto’s Game 3 offensive barrage. The Blue Jays had been 6-1 in their previous seven road games against Seattle, averaging 5.1 runs per game, totaling a plus-16 run differential, and recording a .740 team OPS.
Toronto followed that up with eight more runs on 11 hits (including two home runs yesterday). Prior to this series, the most amount of runs ever scored in a playoff game at T-Mobile Park was eight runs by the Yankees in the 2001 ALCS. That means Toronto now owns the single-game record for most runs there, and is tied for the second-most runs in a game, and it did it all this series.
Pick: Blue Jays Team Total Over 3.5 (-110)
Milwaukee Brewers (+158) at Los Angeles Dodgers (-194) | O/U 8.0 (-105/-115)
Milwaukee entered yesterday’s Game 3 with a nine-game postseason road losing streak. Its last road postseason win came in the 2018 NLCS Game 3. After yesterday’s loss, the Brewers are now just the second team to lose 10 straight road playoff games, and are two shy of the longest road losing streak in playoff history, set by the Twins/Senators franchise from 1925-87.
The glass half-full view would be to say the Brewers will avoid a sweep tonight since they were the best road team in baseball in the regular season (45-36). However, I cannot get around the fact that they had lost four of their last five games prior to Game 3 while scoring eight runs over that span (their fewest over any five-game span this season). They also entered batting .086 as a team in the series, with no player having more than one hit, and batting 0-for-34 against non-fastballs in the postseason.
Meanwhile, Los Angeles was getting production from up and down its lineup, as its No. 5 through No. 9 hitters were batting .385 with six extra-base hits in the two games in Milwaukee.
It suffices to say, this series is a wrap.
Pick: Dodgers -1.5 Runs (+112)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01