The Seattle Mariners are looking to clinch their first trip to the American League Championship Series (ALCS) since 2001. All that is standing in their way is a winner-take-all Game 5 against the Detroit Tigers, who have the likely two-time American League Cy Young Award winner toeing the rubber. How do we see this standalone MLB playoff game playing out?
Read on for my top MLB picks & predictions for Friday, October 10th.
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Friday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Detroit Tigers (-144) at Seattle Mariners (+118) | O/U 5.5 (-119/-102)
At first glance, this over/under looks tantalizingly low, despite this year’s likely Cy Young Award winner toeing the rubber. But historical context makes it seem like a much more realistic number, as T-Mobile Park has now seen eight straight playoff games in which the combined total ended with six or fewer runs. That is the longest such streak at any venue, breaking a tie with three other venues (Tropicana Field, Baltimore Memorial Stadium, Yankee Stadium), two of which had streaks ending in 1983 or earlier.
Tarik Skubal went over the projected earned runs total of 1.5 in Game 2 when Jorge Polanco tagged him for two solo home runs. But the lefty has allowed one or fewer earned runs in seven out of eight starts before that, and he should be in line for a long outing.
Skubal has recorded at least 21 outs in his first two postseason starts, and has averaged more than six innings pitched in his five career playoff starts. I expect Mariners righty George Kirby to match zeros in the early innings while the bullpen cleans things up, as Seattle entered Game 3 with a 2.69 starting pitching ERA and a 2.69 bullpen ERA since September 6th, leading up to Game 3, both of which are top-five rates in the Majors in that span.
Pick: Under 5.5 Runs (-102)
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