It’s already November. Time is flying. Anyway, check out my market-based +EV NBA picks for today’s four-game slate. I want to share some value on the board.
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Sunday’s Best +EV NBA Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
Gui Santos Over 2.5 Assists (+122 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
- Fair Value: +122
- Market EV: +11%
Gui Santos has earned just one assist in back-to-back games. However, he’s still averaged 2.5 assists per game over his last 10 games dating back to last season.
Steph Curry, Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler are all out. When Curry, Green, Butler and Moses Moody are out, Santos has nailed this line in five consecutive games.
You can bet on Santos to go over 2.5 assists at +122. There’s value there.
Keon Ellis Under 5.5 Points (+133 at Novig)
- Fair Value: +114
- Market EV: +9%
Keon Ellis has scored at least six points in four of his last five games. However, he’s starting to see a minutes decline lately. With Mikel Brown Jr. and Egor Demin out, that minutes decline will likely wash away. Still, in the last five games, Ellis has attempted fewer than six shots per game. He still looks like a lower-level scorer.
The veteran can help elsewhere, but he won’t be the Nets’ primary scorer. That’s Michael Porter Jr. and Julius Randle.
You can bet on Ellis to go under 5.5 points at +133 on Novig, but the market EV is 9%. That’s another massive play to consider for tonight’s NBA slate.
Desmond Bane Under 3.5 Assists (+127 at ProphetX)
- Fair Value: +109
- Market EV: +9%
Over the last two games, Desmond Bane has averaged four assists per game. He had nine potential assists in his last game against Toronto, where he totaled six assists. Still, Bane has hovered around five potential assists per game this season. He’s also converted at least 50% of his potential assists in his last three games. Expect that number to shrink in a matchup against Boston today.
You can bet on Bane to go under 3.5 assists at +127 on ProphetX. The fair value is +109, another 9% edge. I’d recommend grabbing this one if you still can.
