Another day, another busy NBA schedule. We have 12 games on the docket today, with four starting at 7:00 p.m. ET and the Lakers and Clippers closing out the night. With so many games, we’ll have a few +EV NBA picks available.
These are my top NBA value picks for the day, courtesy of the market-based +EV page.
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Wednesday’s Best +EV NBA Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Golden State Warriors (+130)
Under normal circumstances, you'd take the Timberwolves and probably lay the points, as Minnesota is one of the league’s better offensive and defensive teams. But this is their first game without Anthony Edwards. As the driving force behind the offense, he’s also a solid defender who can't be easily replaced. No one player can make up for his absence; the whole team will need to step up.
Golden State appeared to figure a few things out in their 134-114 win over the Denver Nuggets. If the Warriors can get similar games out of Yaxel Lendeborg (31 points, 12 rebounds) and Steph Curry (24 points; 3-of-3 from three-point range) and Minnesota struggles to replace Edwards' production, Golden State can steal a win tonight.
Dallas Mavericks Moneyline (+190) & Dallas Mavericks +5.5 (-105)
Expectations are low for Dallas. At 2-2, you could say they've played as well as expected. They gave San Antonio a solid fight the other night. They lost by 16 points, but the Spurs outscored them 13-10 in the fourth quarter. Kyrie Irving did not play in that game. With him? Who knows how the game would have ended.
Oklahoma City is, of course, a great team that did wonders navigating injuries last season. But missing Chet Holmgren, Alex Caruso, Nikola Topic, Thomas Sorber and possibly Ajay Mitchell may be too much for a team that doesn't have the same depth it did last season.
Assuming Irving is available (listed as a game-time decision) and given Oklahoma City’s injuries, the Moneyline is a solid value play here. But if you'd prefer a more cautious approach, Dallas will at least keep this one closer than expected, making Mavericks +5.5 a viable play.
Joel Embiid 10+ Rebounds (+109)
For a more cautious approach, Joel Embiid’s rebounds line is set at 8.5, but this is a solid matchup for one of the NBA’s best rebounders. Yes, his team allows a league-high 53.8 rebounds a game, but the Pacers are allowing 49. That tells me the opportunity for someone to go off on the boards is absolutely there.
Embiid is averaging 9.7 rebounds per game and has grabbed 11 boards in two out of three games this season. Without Ivica Zubac to slow him down, Indiana lacks the personnel to do so. He’ll grab 10+ boards today.
