The Indiana Pacers became the first team to reach the Conference Finals. Tonight, the New York Knicks and Minnesota Timberwolves hope to be next.
I’ve added two first basket wagers in each second-round matchup below.
Follow along and make sure to check out our NBA First Basket Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for help identifying all of today’s best prop bets.
Wednesday’s Best NBA First Basket Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuelFanDuel Sportsbook)
Who will score the first basket in today’s NBA games? We compare historical first-basket stats to prop bet odds to help identify today’s best bets. View first-basket odds across sportsbooks here.
New York Knicks at Boston Celtics
The Boston Celtics lost Jayson Tatum for the rest of the playoffs due to a ruptured Achilles. Ultimately, Tatum is the lone reason why the Celtics are still even in this series against the Knicks. Tatum had been the best performer on the Celtics in this series, but now it’ll be up to Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, and the rest of the Celtics to pull off a miracle.
Ultimately, the Celtics have not yet released a lineup for Game 5. A replacement for Tatum is unclear. However, it seems like Kristaps Porzingis would be the likely candidate. If Porzingis starts, he’ll also likely participate in the opening tip. That said, Porzingis won the opening tip in 80% of games this season and helped the Celtics score first in 62% of games this season.
We’ve gone over this earlier in the series. But again, the Knicks have allowed the first basket to small forwards 32% of the time. That would be Jaylen Brown, who still has the most first baskets for the Celtics this season. Nobody would be surprised if Brown’s shooting volume increases tonight. Plus, he’s shot the team’s first basket in 30% of games and has added the team’s first field goal attempt in 31% of games. Brown’s 14 first baskets were four more than Porzingis in the regular season.
We’re sticking with Brown to come through for us tonight.
Pick: Jaylen Brown (+500)
Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves
The Warriors are one loss away from elimination, but that won’t magically make Stephen Curry healthy. He’s already been ruled out for tonight’s game and will be re-evaluated for Game 6 (if necessary).
The Warriors must win Game 5 to give Curry a chance to play in Game 6, though it’s not guaranteed he will.
With Curry out, the Warriors have recently decided to go bigger. Trayce Jackson-Davis has been starting for the Warriors. Ultimately, in the regular season, Jackson-Davis won the tip in 44% of games and helped the Warriors score first 48% of the time. He only participated in 16 opening tips, but he’s at least a better candidate than Draymond Green.
On the other hand, Rudy Gobert will start the game on center court. He’s won the tip in 48% of games, and the Timberwolves have scored first 45% of the time. Ultimately, Gobert beat Jackson-Davis in Game 4 and gave the Timberwolves the first attempt. However, the Timberwolves missed their shot, and Draymond Green actually scored first. In Game 3, Jackson-Davis won the tip, but the Timberwolves scored first after getting a stop on the defensive end.
At home, I’d expect Gobert to win the tip and give Minnesota the first shot attempt. In addition, the Warriors have allowed the first basket to power forwards and small forwards 23% of the time.
Jaden McDaniels added nine first baskets in the regular season, after taking the team’s first field goal attempt in 23% of games this season. He has the highest rate of any player in the Timberwolves’ starting lineup. Let’s ride McDaniels to score first.
Pick: Jaden McDaniels (+700)
