NFL Week 10 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2023)

It's weeks like this that I appreciate having a player props market for NFL games. There are few sides and totals that interest me, but there are quite a few player props that capture my fancy.

So, a quick shout-out to the innovator of player props, Art Manteris, former head of the Caesars sportsbook in Las Vegas. Manteris is believed to have offered the first player prop in early 1986, when he posted a prop on whether Bears DT William "The Refrigerator" Perry would score a touchdown against the Patriots in Super Bowl XX. Perry famously did rumble in for a short TD run, of course.

It took a while for prop betting to become a thing in games other than the Super Bowl, but the Manifest Destiny of player prop betting was inevitable.

Thanks, Art.

Let's get to this week's selections.

But first, a quick recap of Week 9 …

The wins: Justin Herbert under 251.5 passing yards, Kenneth Walker under 53.5 rushing yards, Taysom Hill over 17.5 rushing yards, Alvin Kamara over 31.5 receiving yards, Demario Douglas over 42.5 receiving yards

The losses: Derek Carr over 245.5 passing yards, Gardner Minshew over 231.5 passing yards, Jonathan Taylor over 63.5 rushing yards, Josh Jacobs under 71.5 rushing yards, Justin Watson over 16.5 receiving yards,

Last week: 5-5
Season record: 40-45

Here are my favorite selections for Week 10 ...

NFL Week 10 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Thursday night.

Justin Herbert UNDER 260.5 passing yards

Herbert has a weapons shortage. The big loss for the Chargers' quarterback was his lone vertical threat, WR Mike Williams, who tore his ACL in Week 3. Since then, Herbert has averaged 217.4 passing yards per game, and he's failed to clear this number in 4-of-5 starts. Now, Herbert is also without Josh Palmer, who had become the Chargers' No. 2 receiver after the Williams injury. Palmer has been placed on injured reserve with a knee injury of his own. Herbert has a Week 10 matchup against a Lions defense that's giving up 220.1 passing yards per game and just 6.3 yards per attempt.

Derrick Henry OVER 66.5 rushing yards

Granted, Henry does not have an easy matchup this week against a respectable Buccaneers run defense that ranks 12th in DVOA and is giving up 73.5 rushing yards per game to running backs. But the Titans are incentivized to keep Henry prominently involved. Rookie QB Will Levis will be making his third NFL start on Sunday, and while the first two starts were promising, the Titans no doubt want to establish the threat of a running game to make the rookie's job easier. In the first two Levis starts, Henry had 22 carries for 101 yards against the Falcons and 17 carries for 75 yards against the Steelers. Barring injury, Henry is a great bet for at least 16 carries against Tampa. If he gets 16 carries and hits his season average of 4.4 yards per carry, Henry will hit 70 rushing yards. Henry is averaging 17.1 carries a game (18.5 in the two Levis starts) and has exceeded 20 carries in 3-of-8 games.

Taysom Hill OVER 23.5 rushing yards

The Saints continue to make Hill a prominent part of their offense. He's played 28 or more snaps in each of the last six games. Hill has logged at least five rushing attempts in each of the Saints' last three contests, and he's averaging 10 carries and 57.5 rushing yards over the last two. Hill has been a high-efficiency runner all year, averaging 5.2 yards per carry. With just a handful of rushing attempts, he should be able to clear this low bar.

Joshua Kelley UNDER 20.5 rushing yards

In the four games the Chargers have played since RB Austin Ekeler returned from an ankle injury, Kelley has averaged 19.5 offensive snaps and 4.3 carries per game. It's a very limited role for a replacement-level running back who has a career average of 3.7 yards per carry. Kelly doesn't figure to get many rushing attempts this week, and the few that he gets will come against a staunch Lions run defense that is allowing 57.6 rushing yards per game and 3.7 yards per carry to RBs.

Kenneth Walker III UNDER 64.5 rushing yards

Walker simply isn't healthy. He's dealing with calf and chest injuries, and he's played fewer snaps than rookie backup Zach Charbonnet in each of Seattle's last two games. Walker had 9-16-0 rushing against the Ravens last week and 8-66-0 against the Browns two weeks ago. With Walker's rushing volume in doubt, he'll have difficulty clearing this total against a pass-funnel Washington defense that ranks 11th in DVOA against the run and 29th in DVOA against the pass.

James Cook UNDER 55.5 rushing yards

Is Cook's role being reduced? After getting a snap share of 59% or higher in each if his first three games, Cook has had a snap share of 55% or lower in four of his last six. The Bills recently signed free-agent RB Leonard Fournette. As of this writing, it wasn't clear whether Fournette would be active in Week 10, but he's been full-go in recent practices. Even if Fournette is inactive, Cook seems unlikely to get heavy rushing volume. He had only six carries last week in a loss to the Bengals and hasn't had more than 14 carries in a game since Week 3. Cook faces a Denver run defense that was terrible early in the season but has tightened up of late. The Broncos have held two of their last three opponents under 100 rushing yards. The under on Cook's rushing total seems like a solid percentage play.

Mike Gesicki OVER 19.5 receiving yards

This is my favorite sneaky player prop of Week 10. Gesicki quietly had a huge uptick in snap share (86%) and routes run (41) last week, as the WR-depleted Patriots made heavy use of two-TE sets. Gesicki was targeted only twice and had no receptions, but the usage spike portends increased production for Gesicki going forward. The sixth-year tight end played for Patriots offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien when O’Brien was the head coach at Penn State, so a more prominent role for Gesicki shouldn't be surprising. Gesicki has a promising Week 10 matchup against a Colts defense that has allowed 58.9 receiving yards per game to TEs, second-most in the league.

DeAndre Hopkins OVER 61.5 receiving yards

In the two games Hopkins has played with rookie Will Levis starting at quarterback for the Titans, the veteran receiver has averaged 8.5 targets and 94 receiving yards. Hopkins had 4-128-3 on six targets against the Falcons in the first Levis start, then 4-60-0 on 11 targets last week against the Steelers. I'm expecting a big target total for Hopkins this week against a pass-funnel Buccaneers defense that's better against the run than the pass.

Christian McCaffrey OVER 31.5 receiving yards

One of the NFL's best pass-catching running backs throughout his career, McCaffrey has produced 51 and 64 receiving yards in his last two games. It's possible McCaffrey's target total comes down this week with short-area WR Deebo Samuel set to return from a shoulder injury, but McCaffrey's receiving production should be bolstered by a favorable matchup. He'll go up against a Jaguars defense that's giving up 49.4 receiving yards and a league-high 7.5 receptions per game to RBs.

Drake London OVER 46.5 receiving yards

London is dealing with a groin injury that kept him out of Atlanta's Week 9 loss to Minnesota, but he's expected back for a Week 10 game against Arizona, which is giving up 174.0 receiving yards per game and 9.5 yards per target to wide receivers. While Falcons head coach Arthur Smith's usage of RB Bijan Robinson and TE Kyle Pitts has been maddening, London is the one highly drafted Atlanta skill-position player who's been consistently busy. Since Week 2, London has averaged 8.0 targets, 5.3 catches and 62.6 receiving yards per game, with at least six targets in each of those contests.

CeeDee Lamb OVER 77.5 receiving yards

Ride the hot hand. Lamb has topped 100 yards in three consecutive games, averaging 155.3 receiving yards per game during that stretch. He had a season-high 16 targets and 191 yards against the Eagles last week, and 14 targets and 158 yards against the Rams two weeks ago. This week, expect Lamb to victimize Giants slot corner Cor'Dale Flott, whom PFF has graded 68th out of 114 graded cornerbacks. Lamb is on fire. Warm your hands by the flames.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: