We hit another one last week! Zay Flowers quickly found the end zone against the Bengals, and the Ravens failed to score another touchdown. That is three weeks in a row with profit. Since we are near the halfway point in the season, I will give a recap. For the sake of simplicity, I track these at one unit, but I recommend wagering no more than 0.5 units on these volatile props. For the year, we are up 30.5 units, with a 5-22 record. Over the past three weeks, the plays are up 21.5 units.
Let's keep the ball rolling this week, and try to stack more than one winner. Someone must score the first TD of the game, and this article will help you increase your odds of hitting on that player based on matchups and team strengths. It will feature a selection for select games on Sunday's slate.
I will track my plays here on BettingPros. Let's get to the first touchdown scorer predictions for NFL Week 8!
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NFL Week 8 First Touchdown Scorer Picks & Predictions
(All bets are one unit, unless otherwise stated)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills
No team scores more points per first quarter than the Ravens. They are tied for most in the league with the Bears at 7.9 per first quarter. Lamar Jackson is returning this week after healing his ankle injury slowly over the past three weeks. The Bills are not a good defense and have only scored 4.3 points per first quarter this season. For that reason, I am taking Ja'Kobi Lane of the Ravens.
He has played two games after returning from a wrist injury sustained in Week 1. He has ten targets with seven receptions and 65 yards over the past two weeks. Lane received a lot of praise in training camp, and now has Jackson throwing him the ball again. He has five red zone targets this season, which is tied for second on the team. That amount of usage near the end zone in only three games is extremely promising.
Pick: Ja'Kobi Lane (+2800 at BetMGM)
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions
Both of these offenses struggle to start quickly. They rank in the bottom eight of the league in first-quarter points per game. The Vikings score 3.7 per first quarter and 2.0 over their last three games. The Lions are even worse at 2.8 per first quarter, but 3.3 over their last three games. They will have to lean on their playmakers against this elite Vikings defense.
The Vikings rank first in the league in EPA per play and EPA per pass. They are only ninth in EPA per rush, so I expect them to lean on Gibbs on the ground this week. He failed to score a touchdown in a game for the first time last week, but was still effective. His usage is off the charts, even in the red zone. He has 36 attempts and seven touchdowns on the ground, with seven targets and two touchdowns in the red zone. Gibbs is the favorite to score first, but in this matchup, he is the best play.
Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs (+325 at theScore Bet)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos
Denver is near the bottom of the league with 3.3 points per first quarter this season, and 4.3 in their last three games. Kansas City is third in the league at 6.7 points per first quarter, scoring 5.3 in their last three games. The Broncos have a good defense, but they struggle against tight ends.
Travis Kelce is still producing at 37 and is still Patrick Mahomes' favorite target. He averages 5.8 targets per game, which is tied with Xavier Worthy for the most on the team. Denver has allowed a touchdown to tight ends in five of its six games. Kelce has three red zone targets this season, catching two for touchdowns. He is a smart play this week in a good matchup.
Pick: Travis Kelce (+1200 at theScore Bet)
