The betting favorites won 10 out of 14 games last week, but they went 8-6 against the spread (ATS). So, underdogs are still winning games, making them worth betting on if you pick the right ones (of course). Which ones are the 'right' ones this week? Here are my top three underdog NFL Week 8 picks.
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NFL Week 8 Picks & Predictions: Underdog Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills
This is a conditional pick based on Lamar Jackson’s availability. If the Ravens get their superstar quarterback back in the lineup, they’ll keep this game close, if not win outright. With Jackson, the offense becomes dynamic again; Jackson should have success against a pass defense allowing 285.8 yards a game.
If the pass game opens up against a weak Bills pass defense, Derrick Henry should have an easier time getting on track and doing damage. A rested Josh Allen and Bills offense will be tough to slow down, especially with Buffalo coming off a bye. As long as Jackson plays, Ravens Moneyline and spread bets provide some value.
Pick: Ravens Moneyline (+142)/ Ravens +3 (-108)
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions
I understand why the Lions are favored. There are two reasons:
- They are playing at home.
- Their offense is one of the best.
With how poorly the Vikings’ offense plays, Jared Goff will not need to hang 20 points on the Vikings, let alone meet their season average of 30.7 points per game, to win.
However, their defense is one of the worst, allowing 391 yards and 27.5 points per game. It doesn't need to be great against a Vikings offense averaging fewer than 21 points per game. But a Vikings offense that allows a league-low 12.8 points per game won’t give up 30 points, and maybe not even 20, to the Lions.
I don't have much confidence in Kyler Murray, but I do in the Vikings’ defense. It will keep the game close and give Minnesota a chance to win, making the Moneyline and the spread solid value plays.
Pick: Vikings Moneyline (+142)/Vikings +3 (+100)
Las Vegas Raiders vs. New York Jets
If you can find plus-money odds on the Raiders to win, make that bet now. Yes, they've lost four in a row, and fans have been wondering where the team is headed. But those losses include two to the Chiefs and Bills by three points, a 45-17 loss to the Patriots (45-17) and a 35-21 loss to the Rams. If one play had gone another way against the Chiefs and Bills, the Raiders would be 5-2.
To be fair, the Jets are better than their 2-5 record suggests. Four of their five losses were by a touchdown or less. They have played decent defense this season, but the offense is questionable on its best days. Look for Kirk Cousins and the Raiders to bounce back and end the losing streak against a soft opponent.
Pick: Raiders Moneyline (+102)
