Week 8 of the NFL season is here, and I'm looking at every game on the slate to find the three best longshot bets. Below, I explain why Jared Goff's hot start may stall against the Vikings' defense. Then, I highlight why Baker Mayfield and Kenneth Walker III are in for huge games after quiet outings in Week 7. Here are the best longshot NFL Week 8 picks.
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NFL Week 8 Picks: Sleepers & Longshot Bets
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jared Goff 2+ Interceptions (+429)
Jared Goff has thrown for the sixth-most yards this season. He's also tied for the fourth-most passing touchdowns, with 14, and he hasn't thrown a single interception. However, I'm expecting him to have his worst game of the season against the Vikings' defense.
The last time the Vikings and Lions met, Goff turned the ball over five times, including two interceptions. It was his only two-interception game last season. No matter how well Goff plays, he always seems to have one egregiously bad game per season. Remember, two years ago, he threw five interceptions in a game that the Lions actually won.
The Vikings have intercepted seven passes this season, averaging 1.2 per game. They're also tied for the league lead with 3.5 sacks per game. Given the pressure the defense can put on quarterbacks and how well the Vikings have handled Goff in the past, I'd hardly consider this a longshot play.
Baker Mayfield 300+ Passing Yards (+680)
After missing a month of football, Baker Mayfield returned last week and didn't have much to do. He attempted just 11 passes, completing seven, as the Buccaneers went to Carolina and won by 30 points.
Mayfield hasn’t thrown for more than 217 yards in a game this season, but I like his chances for a huge day in a favorable matchup and competitive game. The Falcons rank 29th in passing yards allowed per game, as they're giving up 255.6 per game. With the Falcons ranking fourth in rush defense, I expect most of the offensive weight to fall on Mayfield's shoulders.
Another factor in Mayfield's favor is that this should be a high-scoring, back-and-forth game. Two of Mayfield’s four games this season have featured at least 56 points. Meanwhile, the Falcons have allowed at least 24 points in three of their last four games, giving up at least 30 twice during that span.
Kenneth Walker III 140+ Rushing Yards (+575)
His former team dominated Kenneth Walker III and the Chiefs last week. He rushed 14 times for just 36 yards, averaging 2.6 yards per carry. His longest run was just seven yards. He'd had at least one 19-yard run in every game before that.
Because Walker performed so poorly last week, backing him on Sunday provides a lot of value. Walker has rushed for at least 100 yards in four of his six games, topping 170 twice. One of those 170-yard performances came against the same Broncos that he will face on Sunday.
The Broncos haven't improved much against the run since Week 1. They're allowing 133.3 rushing yards per game, which is the fifth-most in the NFL. Additionally, they rank 24th in the league, allowing 4.6 yards per carry. With Walker averaging 5.8 yards per carry, he should find plenty of room to run in this game. I expect the Chiefs to run him more than 20 times, something he's already done three times this season.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.