The 2024-25 English Premier League (EPL) season wraps up this weekend, as all 20 teams take the pitch on Sunday morning. Teams are battling it out for a chance to qualify for European football next season, so we'll have several high-leverage matches to close out the campaign. Below, I'll dive into three of the matches from a sports betting perspective and let you know where I'm laying my money on the pitch. Here are my top Premier League Matchday 38 picks.
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Premier League Matchday 38 Picks & Best Bets (2025)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Fulham (+400) vs. Manchester City (-160), DRAW (+320) | O/U 3.5 (+130/-170)
Let's get started with this pivotal match between Fulham and Manchester City. City's reign of four consecutive titles has come to an end, but Pep Guardiola and his third-place squad (20-8-9, 68 points) can still lock up a Champions League spot on Sunday. They'll take on 10th-place Fulham (15-9-13, 54 points). This contest kicks off at 11:00 a.m. ET from the Craven Cottage in London.
I'll go ahead and lay the -160 vig with Manchester City on Sunday morning. This is a spot where I think it's best to pay the juice rather than lay 1.0 or 1.5 goals, that way we're tightly aligned with City's ambitions and motivations for the contest. A multi-goal win does nothing for them, so perhaps they park the bus and sit on a one-goal lead to secure the three points.
City has been rolling in the Premier League recently, going 6-2-0 in their last eight matches. Fulham is coming off a 3-2 win over Brentford, but they're now just 2-0-4 in their last six contests. The Citizens have the pedigree for playing in marquee matches, and I expect them to take care of business against an inferior club.
Bet: Manchester City Moneyline (-160)
Nottingham Forest (+215) vs. Chelsea (+120), DRAW (+265) | O/U 2.5 (-150/+115)
Both of these teams are in contention for a coveted top-five position, and they'll go head-to-head to fight for a spot. Nottingham Forest currently resides in seventh place at 19-8-10 (65 points), while Chelsea enters the weekend in fifth place at 19-9-9 (66 points). Kickoff is scheduled for 11:00 a.m. ET from The City Ground in Nottingham.
I'll take a plus-money flier on the under for this high-stakes match in Nottingham. These have been two of the best defensive teams in the league this season. Chelsea is third in overall defense (43 goals allowed) and sixth in expected goals allowed (xGA) with a mark of 46.1, while Nottingham Forest is sixth (45) and 10th (47.8), respectively, in those metrics. Forest's 13 clean sheets are the second-most in the Premier League, where only Liverpool (14) is better.
Additionally, the Trees have been lights out defensively at home this season. They've allowed only 15 tallies in 18 matches, which averages out to 0.8 goals against per game. They'll welcome in a Blues team that has scored a modest 28 road goals in 18 matches, while sitting at just 7-4-7 on the road. The City Ground is going to be rocking on Sunday morning. While I don't know if Nottingham can pull off an outright win, I do think they can manage a low-scoring draw in the range of 0-0 or 1-1.
Bet: Under 2.5 Goals (+115)
Newcastle (-320) vs. Everton (+800), DRAW (+475) | O/U 3.5 (+130/-165)
Fourth-place Newcastle (10-6-11, 66 points) has a pretty favorable setup on Sunday, as they'll close out the season against 13th-place Everton (10-15-12, 45 points) at home. This match gets underway at 11:00 a.m. ET from St. James' Park in Newcastle.
There's no doubt that Newcastle United should be favored in this match, but I'm not sure that they should be this big of a favorite in the finale. The Magpies are just 2-1-2 in their last five matches. They'll host an Everton side that has won its last two contests, so this presents a great buy-low spot on the Toffees. They've also covered this line of +1.5 goals in each of their last four Premier League matches.
Everton has been very sharp defensively this season. They're fourth in overall defense (44 goals allowed), while ranking fifth in xGA (45.1). On the other hand, Newcastle has conceded 21 goals in 18 home games this year. The Magpies don't need a resounding victory here, as a simple 1-0 or 2-1 win would see them through to Champions League play. They'll probably win this match, but the Toffees have plenty of routes to keep it within a single goal. Give me Everton +1.5.
Bet: Everton +1.5 (-110)
