Sunday proved how difficult it is to sweep an opponent in a Major League Baseball series, as three of the league’s best teams (the New York Yankees, Detroit Tigers, and Milwaukee Brewers) all avoided home sweeps.
Those three teams, and all of the 27 other MLB teams are in action on a completely full 15-game Monday slate, and we have scoured the data to make our best game prediction and player prop wagers.
Read on for our top MLB picks and bets for Monday, July 28.
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Monday's Best MLB Bets & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Toronto Blue Jays (-126) at Baltimore Orioles (+104) | O/U 9.5 (-105/-115)
In what is arguably the most fishy line of the day’s MLB slate, the red-hot Toronto Blue Jays, winners of eight of 10 games since the All-Star break and 36-of-51 overall, are only a short favorite over a Baltimore Orioles team resigned to missing the playoffs and selling at the trade deadline. So why would the Blue Jays, who have won eight of their last 10 series, not be bigger favorites in this series opener?
For starters, even a team as hot as the Blue Jays are not immune to upsets, as their two series losses in the last 10 were to the other two last place American League teams (the Chicago White Sox and the Athletics).
There is also a perceived starting pitching mismatch in this game, as Orioles righty Zach Eflin has had good career success against current Blue Jays hitters, limiting them to a .241/.250/.433 slash line in 70 combined at-bats. Meanwhile, Blue Jays righty Chris Bassitt has allowed a .299/.345/.525 slash line in 97 combined at-bats to current Orioles hitters, with Ryan O’Hearn and Gunnar Henderson combining for 11 hits in 23 at-bats, and each owning a 1.446 OPS or better in that head-to-head matchup.
I am not falling for the bait of picking the Blue Jays, and am backing the Orioles to steal this series opener in what should be a mismatch on paper.
Pick: Orioles Moneyline (+104)
Chicago Cubs (-115) at Milwaukee Brewers (-105) | O/U 8.0 (-109/-111)
Before the season started, a late-July pitching matchup between Matthew Boyd and Jacob Misiorowski likely would not have been viewed as appointment television. However, with the two teams deadlocked atop the National League Central and with both earning surprise All-Star Game nominations for the first time in their careers, this has all the makings of a pitchers' duel to start a series that will go a long way in deciding the NL Central division.
Boyd’s 11 wins are already more than he ever finished any of his prior 10 seasons with, and his H/9 and HR/9 rates are on pace to be career-bests. Meanwhile, Misiorowski has allowed just one earned run and has a 19:2 K:BB ratio over the last 9.2 innings, and the flamethrower should have an advantage over a Cubs lineup that is facing his elite velocity for the first time.
The Under has cashed in 12 of Milwaukee’s 18 games as home underdogs, and I expect it to be the right side of the total tonight.
Pick: Under 8 Runs (-111)
New York Mets (+107) at San Diego Padres (-131) | O/U 8.0 (-111/-109)
Just last week, Francisco Lindor snapped a career-long hitless streak of 31 at-bats. However, Lindor now enters this game having hit safely in three of the last four games and batting .333 in that span, and his historical success against Dylan Cease suggests he should be on base enough to cross the plate at least once.
Lindor has batted .333 with a .357 on-base percentage in 12 career at-bats against Cease. Additionally, all four of his hits have been extra-base hits, and he has plated himself with three home runs. That is the reason for Lindor’s gaudy 1.524 OPS against Cease.
The shortstop also figures to get plenty of protection from the rest of his teammates, as Cease has allowed a .279/.318/.566 slash line in 61 combined at-bats to current Mets hitters. The Mets have a team total of 3.5 runs with the Over juiced to -130, and I expect Lindor to be one of those that scores a run tonight.
Pick: Francisco Lindor Over 0.5 Runs (+105)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01