My MLB best bets articles will take on a new look moving forward, as I will be combining player prop plays with some of my best game picks all in one piece. With our first article for July, we are tipping our five best plays amid a loaded 18-game mid-week slate. Read on for our top MLB picks and predictions for Wednesday, July 2nd.
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Wednesday's Best MLB Picks & Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Athletics (+188) at Tampa Bay Rays (-233) | O/U 9 (-105/-115)
The Rays lost Monday’s series opener to the Athletics, which meant they lost consecutive games for the first time since June 10-11. Tampa Bay had gone 11-4 between those instances, and I like the grit they showed in that loss coming back from a 4-0 deficit before ultimately falling 6-4.
The Rays should again be carried by Brandon Lowe, who entered Tuesday with a career-high 16-game hit streak. In that span, he was batting .403 with five home runs and 13 RBI. I also expect a big outing from Rays righty Ryan Pepiot, who has made 10 quality starts in his 17 appearances. Pepiot was involved in the team’s 22-8 blowout loss to the Orioles in his last appearance, but the Rays are 4-2 in his prior six starts with a +22 run differential in that span.
Pick: Rays -1.5 (-119)
Ke’Bryan Hayes Over 0.5 RBIs (+260)
The Pittsburgh Pirates entered Tuesday with a four-game winning streak, which was tied for their longest this season. Pittsburgh wasn’t just winning games, it bludgeoned its opponents, out-scoring the Mets (in a three-game sweep) and the Cardinals (in the series opener) by a combined score of 37-4.
Tommy Pham entered Tuesday with a seven-game RBI streak, which was tied for the longest by a Pirates player since Kevin Young (eight games in May 1999). However, Pham is just 1-for-7 in his career off of Cardinals righty Sonny Gray, which has me backing Ke’Bryan Hayes as my favorite player prop in this game.
Hayes entered Tuesday with multiple RBIs in three straight games, and was batting .424 with 10 RBI and a .972 OPS during an overall nine-game hit streak. I am expecting the Pirates offense to stay hot until someone cools them off, with Hayes leading the way again.
San Diego Padres (+100) at Philadelphia Phillies (-121) Game 1 | O/U 9 (+100/-121)
Padres righty Nick Pivetta has struggled with current Phillies hitters, allowing a combined .275/.398/.579 slash line over 69 at-bats. His road ERA is also nearly two runs higher on the road than at home (4.50 road ERA compared to a 2.55 ERA at Petco Park).
Pivetta's ERA has also gotten worse each month, culminating in a 4.71 ERA in five June starts. With this being the first game of a doubleheader, I would expect San Diego to be cautious with its best relievers, especially if it gets down early.
Pick: Phillies Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (+110)
New York Yankees (-132) at Toronto Blue Jays (+108) | O/U 9 (-106/-114)
Toronto entered Tuesday 20-10 in its last 30 games, while averaging 5.4 runs per game since May 28. A big reason for that offensive success is that the Blue Jays lineup was striking out at the lowest rate in the league, while also making the most contact. However, Toronto’s defense is also not too shabby, ranking third in DRS and tied for second in OAA.
The Blue Jays are clearly determined not to let Aaron Judge beat them, as they intentionally walked him 12 times in 36 games entering Tuesday. With Judge’s bat mitigated, I expect Vladimir Guerrero’s offensive heroics to again make the difference. He entered Tuesday batting .333 with eight extra-base hits and 13 RBI in the previous 13 games.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline (+108)
Roman Anthony Over 1.5 total bases (OFF)
Red Sox rookie Roman Anthony has looked like anything but a first-year player, especially when comparing his numbers to the MLB average.
Anthony entered Tuesday with a 13.7% walk rate, an 18.9% chase %, a 48.8% hard-hit rate, and a 93.2 average exit velo. All of those numbers trump the MLB average of an 8.5% walk rate, 28.0% chase %, 41.4% hard hit rate, and 89.5 average exit velocity.
Anthony is in his much better power split with a .770 OPS against right-handed pitchers versus a .438 OPS against lefties, and he should get the better of his matchup with Nick Martinez. I will back the Over on Anthony’s total bases prop down to +135 when the odds become available, likely at the conclusion of yesterday’s suspended game.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01