Five NBA games will be played today, including a Pistons-Heat matchup airing nationally on NBA TV. Below, I explain why I expect both teams to score plenty in that contest. Then, I highlight why the Nuggets should cruise against the Pelicans and why the Timberwolves' offense should dominate the Bulls. Here are the best NBA picks for Saturday, November 14th.
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Saturday’s Best NBA Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat
The Pistons are allowing only 107.8 points per game, ranking seventh in the NBA. However, they've allowed 124 points per game over their last three contests, giving up at least 121 points twice. I'm expecting the Pistons' defense to struggle again, as the Heat are averaging 117.2 points per game and have scored at least 114 points in seven of their last eight games.
The Pistons scoring at least 114 points is the easier portion of this bet. Though they're only averaging 115.5 points per game, the Heat are allowing 120.1 points per game. That ranks 26th in the league.
The Heat have held two of their last three opponents to fewer than 110 points. However, those two teams - the Kings and Jazz - rank 27th and 28th in points per game, respectively. Each team is averaging 108.3 points per game or fewer.
Pick: Both Teams Over 113.5 Points (+250)
Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans
The Nuggets and Pelicans have already met twice this season. Though the Nuggets needed overtime to win the first meeting, they won the second meeting by 13 points. Though they scored only 104 points in that game, they have more upside in this contest because the Pelicans allow an average of 125.6 points per game. Meanwhile, the Nuggets are allowing just 113.3 points per game.
The Pelicans are in the midst of a disastrous five-game losing streak. Their last four losses are each by at least 16 points, and over their last three contests, they've averaged 38.3 points per game. What's most alarming is that one of those massive losses came against the Nets, who are just 3-8 and averaging 110.2 points per game.
The Nuggets are only 6-4 this season, but they have won three of their last four games. They won two of those by at least 12 points. They're shooting 48.3% from the field, which is the second-best average in the league. I expect them to shoot over 50% for the first time this season against the Pelicans, who have the league's second-worst shooting defense.
Pick: Nuggets -11.5 (-113)
Chicago Bulls at Minnesota Timberwolves
On Friday, the Bulls allowed just 117 points to the Hawks. It was the first time they held an opponent below 124 points all season. However, I think this defensive success will be short-lived, as the Bulls have to go on the road to play the Timberwolves in Minnesota tonight.
The Timberwolves are averaging the fifth-most points per game (119.3), and 121 per game over their last three contests. The Timberwolves just dropped 133 points against the Mavericks on Thursday. They have now scored at least 127 points in three games this season.
What makes me like the Timberwolves even more in this game is that they're shooting 48.2% from the field and averaging 50.2% over their last three games. There is no reason to expect them to cool off against a defense that has allowed opponents to shoot 48.2% from the field this season.
Pick: Timberwolves Team Total Over 125.5 Points (-110)
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.