March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 171-114, +50.3 units (Through Round 1)
March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 171-114, +50.3 units (Through Round 1)
2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Penn State vs. Texas
Penn State Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Jalen Pickett |
17.4 |
8.6 |
5.9 |
25.9 |
23.3 |
31.8 |
1.2 |
2.7 |
| Seth Lundy |
14.1 |
7.4 |
0.8 |
21.5 |
14.9 |
22.3 |
2.4 |
2.8 |
| Andrew Funk |
11.5 |
3.4 |
0.9 |
14.9 |
12.5 |
15.8 |
2.6 |
1.1 |
| Camren Wynter |
9.0 |
3.5 |
1.8 |
12.5 |
10.9 |
14.4 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
| Myles Dread |
4.8 |
2.2 |
0.7 |
6.9 |
5.5 |
7.6 |
1.3 |
0.2 |
| Kebba Njie |
3.5 |
4.4 |
0.5 |
7.8 |
3.9 |
8.3 |
0.0 |
0.7 |
| Kanye Clary |
3.9 |
1.1 |
0.6 |
5.0 |
4.5 |
5.6 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
| Evan Mahaffey |
1.1 |
0.8 |
0.1 |
1.8 |
1.2 |
2.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
| Michael Henn |
1.6 |
0.9 |
0.3 |
2.5 |
1.9 |
2.8 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
| Dallion Johnson |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Caleb Dorsey |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jameel Brown |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Demetrius Lilley |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Andy Christos |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Dan Conlan |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Ishaan Jagiasi |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Texas Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Marcus Carr |
16.0 |
3.7 |
4.6 |
19.7 |
20.6 |
24.3 |
2.1 |
2.5 |
| Sir’Jabari Rice |
15.1 |
5.2 |
2.8 |
20.3 |
17.9 |
23.1 |
1.8 |
3.1 |
| Tyrese Hunter |
10.5 |
3.6 |
2.9 |
14.1 |
13.4 |
17.0 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
| Timmy Allen |
6.9 |
4.3 |
2.6 |
11.2 |
9.5 |
13.8 |
0.0 |
1.4 |
| Dylan Disu |
8.0 |
4.8 |
1.1 |
12.7 |
9.1 |
13.9 |
0.3 |
1.0 |
| Christian Bishop |
5.5 |
3.8 |
0.9 |
9.3 |
6.4 |
10.2 |
0.0 |
0.9 |
| Arterio Morris |
2.6 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
3.6 |
3.0 |
3.9 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
| Brock Cunningham |
4.8 |
4.1 |
1.5 |
8.9 |
6.3 |
10.4 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
| Dillon Mitchell |
3.1 |
3.3 |
0.3 |
6.4 |
3.4 |
6.7 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
| Alex Anamekwe |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cole Bott |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Gavin Perryman |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Penn State vs. Texas Player Prop Bet Picks
All betting odds are from:
Penn State
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Camren Wynter Under 19.5 PRAs |
-115 |
1.15 |
1 |
DK |
| Camren Wynter Under 12.5 Points |
-115 |
1.15 |
1 |
MGM |
| Camren Wynter Under 2.5 Assist |
110 |
1 |
1.1 |
MGM |
| Andrew Funk Under 13.5 Points |
-120 |
1.2 |
1 |
UB |
| Seth Lundy Over 18.5 PRAs |
-107 |
1.07 |
1 |
UB |
| Jalen Pickett Over 6.5 Rebounds |
-125 |
1.25 |
1 |
DK |
Texas
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Sir’Jabari Rice Under 2.5 3Ps |
107 |
1 |
1.07 |
UB |
| Sir’Jabari Rice Under 17.5 Points |
-105 |
1.05 |
1 |
UB |
| Timmy Allen Under 22.5 PRAs |
-110 |
1.1 |
1 |
UB |
| Timmy Allen Under 6.5 Rebounds |
110 |
1 |
1.1 |
MGM |
| Dylan Disu Under 19.5 PRAs |
-115 |
1.15 |
1 |
DK |
| Dylan Disu Under 11.5 Points |
-104 |
1.04 |
1 |
FD |
| Marcus Carr Over 2.5 Rebounds |
100 |
1 |
1 |
UB |
More Round 2 Player Prop Bet Picks
Find all of our player prop bets here >>
Round 2 Same Game Parlay Picks
Round 2 Betting Picks & Predictions
Check out all of our coverage for the 2023 NCAA Tournament >>
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