In this article, I present 1) my personal spread and total projections for Super Bowl LVII and 2) my betting strategy for the 2022-23 NFL Championship.
It has been a good 2022-23 NFL season for us. You can follow all of my picks on BettingPros here.
Get ready for the big game with our Super Bowl LVII Betting Guide >>
Conference Championship Record
- Spreads, Totals, Moneylines & Teasers: 1-3 (-2.55 units)
- Player Props: 6-1 (+5.33 units)
Year-to-Date Record
- Spreads, Totals, Moneylines & Teasers: 133-111 (+10.9 units)
- Player Props: 257-199 (+40.2 units)
Although I track all of my bets collectively in the BettingPros App and BettingPros Discord, I also have them all posted in my official Super Bowl LVII betting card.
As I make more bets, I will post them first in our Discord and then write up my bets for publication via article. To get my Super Bowl LVII bets as quickly as possible, join Discord.
All odds are from our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.
Abbreviations: Expected Points Added per Play (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Against the Spread (ATS), Over/Under (O/U), Return on Investment (ROI).
Freedman's Super Bowl LVII Projections
Here are my personal spread and total projections for Super Bowl LVII. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Tuesday, Feb. 7.
Note: I update my personal projections as well as our premium BettingPros spread projections throughout the week.
- Spread: Freedman Projection: Chiefs -1.5 | Consensus Odds: Eagles -1.5
- Total: Freedman Projection: 51.6 | Consensus Odds: 50.5
Freedman's Super Bowl LVII Breakdown
Here are stats and notes for Super Bowl LVII
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Check out our Chiefs vs. Eagles matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Feb. 12, 2022, 6:30 pm ET
- Location: State Farm Stadium, Glendale (AZ)
- TV: FOX
Chiefs vs. Eagles: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages
Percentage data from Action Network and as of Feb. 7.
- Spread Betting Percentages: Eagles - 60% bets, 61% money
- Total Betting Percentages: Over - 53% bets, 62% money
Chiefs vs. Eagles: 2022-23 ATS Records & Over/Under Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Includes postseason.
- Chiefs ATS: 7-12 (-29.6% ROI)
- Eagles ATS: 10-9 (0.9% ROI)
- Chiefs Overs: 8-11 (-20.1% ROI)
- Eagles Overs: 10-9 (1.7% ROI)
Kansas City Chiefs: Notable Trends
For HC Andy Reid, includes only games with the Chiefs.
- HC Andy Reid: 3-0 ATS (96.1% ROI) vs. Eagles in #RevengeGame
- HC Andy Reid: 8-9 ATS (-9.1% ROI) off the bye
- HC Andy Reid: 21-13-1 ATS (20.5% ROI) as underdog
- HC Andy Reid: 52-34-1 ATS (18.3% ROI) away from Arrowhead
- HC Andy Reid: 18-9-1 ATS (30.3% ROI) as road/neutral dog
- QB Patrick Mahomes: 4-3 ATS (11.9% ROI) off the bye
- QB Patrick Mahomes: 7-1-1 ATS (64.8% ROI) as underdog
- QB Patrick Mahomes: 25-18-1 ATS (13.3% ROI) away from Arrowhead
- QB Patrick Mahomes: 7-0-1 ATS (85.4% ROI) as road/neutral dog
- QB Patrick Mahomes: 27-16 Over (21.7% ROI) away from Arrowhead
- QB Patrick Mahomes: 6-2 Over (45.6% ROI) as road/neutral dog
Philadelphia Eagles: Notable Trends
- QB Jalen Hurts: 2-0-1 ATS (61.5% ROI) off the bye
- QB Jalen Hurts: 6-12 ATS (-35.8% ROI) away from Lincoln Financial
- QB Jalen Hurts: 13-11-1 ATS (3.7% ROI) as favorite
- QB Jalen Hurts: 3-9 ATS (-52.4% ROI) as road/neutral favorite
Super Bowl: Notable Trends
- Underdogs: 12-7 ATS (22.9% ROI)
- Totals: 11-8 Unders (11.0% ROI)
Freedman’s Trend Notes
This season the Chiefs have had a propensity to win without covering. To borrow from Pat Fitzmaurice, they’re like a cat playing with its food. They’ve played like a pitcher who intentionally doesn’t throw his fastball as hard as he can.
Of all the teams to make the Super Bowl in the last 20 years, the Chiefs have the lowest ATS winning percentage (36%). In that regard, they are highly similar to the 2020-21 Chiefs (44%), who suffered an embarrassing 31-9 loss to the Buccaneers as -3 favorites.
But that Chiefs team was horrifically injured on the offensive line, and there are no games after this one, so there’s no reason for the Chiefs not to bring the heat. I think we’ll see their real fastball in the Super Bowl, particularly since HC Andy Reid is facing the team that scapegoated him a decade ago.
It’s not as if Reid and QB Patrick Mahomes need any extra incentive, but they have a legacy-defining opportunity in front of them. This is Reid’s fourth Super Bowl. If he wins — in a #RevengeGame no less — he’ll have his second NFL championship, which will almost certainly make him a first-ballot Hall of Famer.
And this is Mahomes’ third Super Bowl appearance in five years as a starter. If he wins, he’ll have two titles and probably two MVPs to his name. With that kind of record, he could retire this offseason and still be elected to the Hall of Fame.
More than just a Super Bowl is at stake for Reid and Mahomes.
Whatever benefit Reid theoretically has with the extra time to prepare is likely already accounted for by the market — but Reid and Mahomes have done incredibly well away from home and as underdogs.
Historically, this is the spot to bet on Reid and Mahomes — and it has also been profitable to back underdogs in the Super Bowl.
Similarly, this has been the spot to bet against Eagles QB Jalen Hurts … and I hate saying that, because I like Hurts. Here’s what I wrote about him in my 2020 rookie dynasty breakdown.
If he ever does get a full-time gig, I think he'll do well.
Think Tyrod Taylor, Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson: In the words of Voldemort, "They never learn. Such a pity."
For much of the past decade, NFL executives have repeatedly misevaluated and underrated many quarterbacks who don't match the prototype, specifically guys who generate a significant portion of their value via the running game and have less than optimal size or arm strength.
Hurts is one of those guys.
Although he's just the No. 5 quarterback drafted in the class, the truth is that Hurts unquestionably has the highest fantasy upside of any 2020 rookie quarterback, including Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa, his former Alabama teammate.
I like Hurts a lot. In 2021, I had an 80-1 ticket on him to win MVP. I was a year too early, but my general evaluation of him has been proven correct. Hurts is an MVP-caliber player.
But I can’t ignore his home/road splits, especially as a favorite.
- QB Jalen Hurts: 13-5-1 ATS (36.8% ROI) at home
- QB Jalen Hurts: 6-12 ATS (-35.8% ROI) on road
- QB Jalen Hurts: 10-2-1 ATS (55.4% ROI) as home favorite
- QB Jalen Hurts: 3-9 ATS (-52.4% ROI) as road favorite
So the trends point toward the Chiefs, as well as the over. Underdogs and unders tend to be correlated, and we see that in the overall history of the Super Bowl, but Mahomes as an underdog has been a different kind of beast. As an underdog — as someone who needs to score points — Mahomes can put up points.
The same perspective that pushes me toward the Chiefs also pushes me toward the over.
Chiefs vs. Eagles: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only.
Chiefs Offense vs. Eagles Defense
| Metric |
Offense |
Rank |
Defense |
Rank |
Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play |
0.179 |
1 |
-0.063 |
4 |
3 |
| Total SR |
50.7% |
1 |
43.4% |
14 |
13 |
| Total DVOA |
25.2% |
1 |
-9.7% |
6 |
5 |
| Dropback EPA |
0.274 |
1 |
-0.087 |
1 |
0 |
| Dropback SR |
53.6% |
1 |
43.5% |
6 |
5 |
| Pass DVOA |
41.1% |
1 |
-15.5% |
1 |
0 |
| Adj. Sack Rate |
4.8% |
5 |
11.2% |
1 |
-4 |
| Rush EPA |
-0.019 |
10 |
-0.023 |
23 |
13 |
| Rush SR |
44.5% |
6 |
43.2% |
23 |
17 |
| Rush DVOA |
1.3% |
9 |
-1.9% |
21 |
12 |
| Adj. Line Yards |
4.82 |
3 |
4.54 |
22 |
19 |
| Yards per Play |
6.4 |
1 |
4.8 |
1 |
0 |
| Points per Game |
29.2 |
1 |
20.2 |
7 |
6 |
Eagles Offense vs. Chiefs Defense
| Metric |
Offense |
Rank |
Defense |
Rank |
Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play |
0.1 |
3 |
-0.001 |
15 |
12 |
| Total SR |
47.9% |
3 |
42.8% |
12 |
9 |
| Total DVOA |
15.1% |
3 |
1.4% |
17 |
14 |
| Dropback EPA |
0.121 |
7 |
0.036 |
16 |
9 |
| Dropback SR |
45.8% |
16 |
44.5% |
12 |
-4 |
| Pass DVOA |
23.9% |
9 |
6.5% |
20 |
11 |
| Adj. Sack Rate |
7.7% |
21 |
8.9% |
3 |
-18 |
| Rush EPA |
0.072 |
1 |
-0.076 |
16 |
15 |
| Rush SR |
50.7% |
1 |
39.4% |
10 |
9 |
| Rush DVOA |
15.4% |
1 |
-6.9% |
15 |
14 |
| Adj. Line Yards |
4.66 |
6 |
4.47 |
21 |
15 |
| Yards per Play |
5.9 |
4 |
5.1 |
7 |
3 |
| Points per Game |
28.1 |
3 |
21.7 |
16 |
13 |
Chiefs vs. Eagles: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. 2022 data: Min. 320 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR. Regular season only.
2022: Patrick Mahomes
| Metric |
Output |
Rank |
| EPA + CPOE |
0.178 |
1 |
| AY/A |
8.5 |
2 |
| QBR |
77.5 |
1 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. |
5.5 |
1 |
Career: Patrick Mahomes
- AY/A: 8.6
- QB Elo per Game: 124.0
2022: Jalen Hurts
| Metric |
Output |
Rank |
| EPA + CPOE |
0.144 |
3 |
| AY/A |
8.4 |
3 |
| QBR |
66.3 |
4 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. |
3.4 |
3 |
Career: Jalen Hurts
- AY/A: 7.6
- QB Elo per Game: 67.8
Key Matchup for Chiefs Offense: QB Patrick Mahomes vs. Eagles Pass Defense
By many metrics, Mahomes is the No. 1 passer in the league. Indeed, I have him as the No. 1 quarterback in my unit power rankings.
In dropback EPA and pass DVOA, this is a matchup of No. 1 offense vs. No. 1 defense.
| Metric |
Offense |
Rank |
Defense |
Rank |
Offense Edge |
| Dropback EPA |
0.274 |
1 |
-0.087 |
1 |
0 |
| Pass DVOA |
0.411 |
1 |
-0.155 |
1 |
0 |
Here’s the thing: I don’t think the Eagles pass defense is actually as good as the No. 1 ranking indicates. This year, the Eagles were No. 1 with 70 sacks and an 11.2% adjusted sack rate. With EDGEs Haason Reddick, Josh Sweat, Brandon Graham and Robert Quinn and DTs Javon Hargrave and Fletcher Cox, they can get after the quarterback.
But they accumulated much of their production against subpar opponents, ranking No. 32 in overall strength of schedule (-5.9% DVOA). Against the two top-five offenses they faced this year (with their starting quarterbacks), the Eagles were far less effective on defense.
- Lions (Week 1): 35 points | 455 total yards
- Cowboys (Week 16): 40 points | 442 total yards
If QBs Jared Goff and Dak Prescott can lead offensive attacks that exploit the Eagles, Mahomes can too, especially since the Chiefs offense is No. 5 in adjusted sack rate (4.8%). The Eagles have a great defensive line, but the Chiefs have all five of their starting offensive lineman healthy, and two of them — LG Joe Thuney and C Creed Humphrey — are second-team All-Pros. The Eagles pass rush is great, but the Chiefs have a real chance to keep Mahomes upright.
The Chiefs exited the AFC Championship with injuries to WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee), Kadarius Toney (ankle) and Mecole Hardman (pelvis) and TE Travis Kelce (back), but I’m not concerned.
Two weeks is enough time for most players without serious injuries to get healthy. I doubt that Hardman will play in the Super Bowl: He has played just 15 snaps since Week 10, and Reid is pessimistic that he’ll be ready.
Andy Reid on Mecole Hardman: "I doubt he'll make the Super Bowl."
— Sam McDowell (@SamMcDowell11) February 2, 2023
But his absence won’t matter much given that he has missed so much of the season anyway: The team is used to playing without him.
UPDATE: Mecole Hardman has been placed on injured reserve and will not play in the Super Bowl.
As for Smith-Schuster and Toney: They are likelier to play.
Reid was particularly optimistic that among the injured players Toney and JuJu would be able to play in the Super Bowl. On JuJu, Reid said, "He's in a good place."
— Adam Teicher (@adamteicher) February 2, 2023
Of the two, Smith-Schuster is the one who is more important and likelier to be on the field. Ever since his midseason trade to the Chiefs, Toney has been nothing more than a rotational receiver, and he has had an injury-riddled start to his career. Smith-Schuster, however, is the No. 1 wide receiver on the team with 100 targets and 969 yards receiving in 18 games.
With Smith-Schuster active, the Chiefs will have the four wide receivers who have played the most for them this year (per PFF).
- JuJu Smith-Schuster (18 games): 855 snaps | 584 routes
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling (19 games): 861 snaps | 619 routes
- Justin Watson (18 games): 532 snaps | 313 routes
- Skyy Moore (18 games): 371 snaps | 202 routes
That’s not a great wide receiver unit — but it’s one that Mahomes is used to. Plus, the Chiefs utilize a lot of two-tight end sets anyway, relying heavily on No. 2 TE Noah Gray (680 snaps, 326 routes in 19 games). I think the Chiefs can survive without a fully healthy wide receiver group, especially since they have two weeks to scheme around their pass-catching weaknesses.
As long as Mahomes (ankle) and Kelce are fine, the Chiefs pass offense should be good — and I’m not worried about the health of either one. Despite suffering what seemed to be a serious injury in the Divisional Round, Mahomes practiced fully ahead of the Conference Championship, played every offensive snap vs. the Bengals and looked good enough doing it (326 yards, two touchdowns passing).
And Kelce has two weeks to get his balky back right — after going 7-78-1 receiving on eight targets in the Conference Championship. He’s fine.
So this looks like a sufficiently healthy Chiefs pass offense — quarterbacked by the best player in the league — going against an Eagles pass defense that is good (perhaps great) but yet to perform at an elite level against the league’s best offenses.
I give the advantage to Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Key Matchup for Eagles Offense: QB Jalen Hurts vs. Chiefs Defensive Line
To state the obvious: The Eagles have a great offensive line. There’s not one weak link, and they have two Hall of Famers in C Jason Kelce and RT Lane Johnson, both of whom were still first-team All-Pros this year.
Entering the Super Bowl, everyone will talk about how dominant this group is. The best unit on either side of the ball in this game. Respect all around. Etc.
Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way …
Let’s talk about the fact that the Eagles offense this season was No. 21 in adjusted sack rate (7.7%) and No. 24 in raw sack rate (7.6%).
That’s not good.
The Eagles should be able to have success running the ball.
| Metric |
Offense |
Rank |
Defense |
Rank |
Offense Edge |
| Rush EPA |
0.072 |
1 |
-0.076 |
16 |
15 |
| Rush SR |
0.507 |
1 |
0.394 |
10 |
9 |
| Rush DVOA |
0.154 |
1 |
-0.069 |
15 |
14 |
It’s not as if the Chiefs run defense is bad. It’s average at worst. But the Eagles have an elite rush attack — and that’s a big part of why their offensive line is so heralded.
But if the Chiefs are able to score (and I think they will, as noted in the previous section) then the Eagles will likely be forced to deemphasize the run and instead lean on the passing game, where I can imagine them struggling for a couple of key reasons.
- Hurts (shoulder) has not been as dynamic as a passer since suffering an injury in Week 15 against the Bears. In Weeks 1-15, he averaged 248 yards passing per game and 8.7 adjusted yards per attempt. In his three games since then (Weeks 18 & 20-21) he had 229, 154 and 121 yards passing and 5.3, 8.1 and 4.8 AY/A. Because of his injury, Hurts might not be his full self as a thrower.
- Hurts takes a lot of sacks. Too many sacks. In the regular season, he was the No. 8 quarterback in most sacks taken with 2.5 per game — and that’s despite having only 30.7 pass attempts per game.
Let’s assume that the Eagles offensive line is indeed No. 1 in the league. Even so, sacks are a quarterback stat, and Hurts has allowed opposing defenses to get to him much more this year than we’d expect given the quality of his blocking.
And the Chiefs are good at rushing the passer. They’re not as good as the Eagles are at it. No one was this year. The Eagles had an unfathomable 70 sacks.
But the Chiefs were No. 2 in the league with 55 sacks.
In the regular season, the Chiefs were a middle-of-the-road No. 14 in blitz rate (24.2%) — and even without bringing the house they were still No. 8 in hurry rate (8.3%), No. 5 in pressure rate (24.9%) and No. 3 in adjusted sack rate (8.9%).
With first-team All-Pro DT Chris Jones (15.5 sacks in the regular season), the Chiefs can pressure the pocket from the interior. And with the steady rotation of EDGEs Frank Clark, George Karlaftis, Carlos Dunlap and Michael Danna (20 combined sacks), the Chiefs can consistently create pressure from the perimeter for all four quarters.
The Chiefs can get after the quarterback.
Even though Mahomes has an ankle injury, and even though Hurts is one of the league’s most mobile quarterbacks (139-784-10 rushing in 2021, 165-760-13 rushing in 2022), I still believe that if you look at the actual adjusted sack rates …
- Chiefs Offense vs. Eagles Defense: 4.8% (No. 5) vs. 11.2% (No. 1) | 8.0% combined average
- Eagles Offense vs. Chiefs Defense: 7.7% (No. 21) vs. 8.9% (No. 3) | 8.3% combined average
… you might conclude that it’s possible — maybe even probable — that Hurts will struggle more than Mahomes against the pass rush.
I don’t expect Hurts to perform poorly against the Chiefs, but the defensive line has enough of an edge to make a difference in this matchup.
Freedman's Spread Bet on Super Bowl LVII
I feel stronger about the Chiefs than I do about the over, so that’s where I’ll get my “large market investment” for the Super Bowl.
Best Line: Chiefs +1.5 (-110, FanDuel)
Freedman Projection: Chiefs -1.5
Freedman's Betting Strategy for Super Bowl LVII
Most of my exposure for the Super Bowl will come via the prop market. Player props of course, but also game props.
As I note in my official betting card, I tend to bet on the boring side of props. If it’s an over/under, I usually take the under. If it’s a yes/no proposition, I tend to see value on “No.”
And since most casual bettors — who flock to the Super Bowl en masse — like to bet on something to happen, that means the market often moves up before reaching an equilibrium point.
As a result, I’ve placed few prop bets as of writing on the game. But as we get closer to kick off and the market has reached its peak, I’ll place my bets.
Freedman's Notes on Super Bowl LVII Player Props
Each week I post my player prop bets in my AMA channel within the BettingPros Discord, and I'll do the same this week.
This week, all of my Super Bowl LVII player projections are available for free in an article, and they’re also incorporated into our official Super Bowl LVII FantasyPros projections, which we use on BettingPros to power our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet and Prop Bet Analyzer, both of which are great resources you should use.
Whether you're new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section - including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners - or head to more advanced sports betting strategy - like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread - to learn more.
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